Arthur Conan Doyle once described how Sherlock Holmes unraveled a mystery because of the “dog that didn’t bark”. That’s reminds me of the G-20 meeting in Korea. China is clearly manipulating its currency, but so is the U.S. But, there was little furor about this.
While the finance ministries are warning of a currency war, there was no furor that we were already in it.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner proposed measurable goals for the emerging markets to reduce their trade surpluses, which is as ridiculous as the U.S. promising to reduce our trade deficit. Again, no indignation, no furor?
There must be an unusual amount of behind-the-scenes negotiation going on, but we won’t know anything until the dog barks.
If logic prevails, China will revalue their currency. Since that has nothing to do with the only thing China does care about, i.e., internal tranquility, don’t expect to hear the dog bark anytime soon.