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Rolling Crisis?

10/27/2015

When I moved from the barely-growing mid-Atlantic to rapidly-growing Texas in the late 1970’s, I was grateful that at least some part of the country was growing.  A few years later, Texas experienced an oil crash.  I remember seeing bumper stickers that read:  Please God, let there be one more oil boom, and I promise not to waste it next time.

As Texas slipped into recession, the northeast started booming. A few years later, Texas enjoyed a housing boom caused by the Garn-St Germain bill, that allowed Savings and Loan Associations to do almost anything.  Of course, that caused lending excesses, which then caused a real estate recession scandal  in Texas, while California began enjoying a boom in technology.  Economists reasoned that the United States is so huge that some sort of recession is always “rolling around” the country and called them rolling recessions.

Some pundits humorously suggested there is only one recession, and it just keeps rolling around the country.

In 1997, Asia entered into a serious recession.  However, their recession became a financial crisis and pulled most of the developed world into a recession.  In 2008/9, the United States endured a financial crisis that pulled the global economy into a recession.  In 2010/11, Europe endured a financial crisis and almost pulled the global economy back into recession.  (While we didn’t go back into recession, our stock markets certainly suffered.)

Today, there is concern that Asia is slipping back into recession and possibly another financial crisis.  The Shanghai Stock Market collapse sure smells like a financial crisis, at least to the nose of a financial economist.

I wonder if those now-older pundits would humorously suggest there is only one financial crisis, and it just keeps rolling around the world.

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