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09/16/2015

Wall Street believes the Fed will raise interest rates modestly this Thursday but rallied in the face of the expected increase anyway.  This is a good sign.  We may witness the market bulls running after the increase is announced, which is the opposite of earlier expectations.

I’m confident the Fed does not want to raise rates, due to political pressure both at home and abroad.  The IMF and the World Bank have asked the Fed not to raise rates, because an economic slowdown here also slows growth worldwide.  Additionally, U-6 unemployment is still 10.3%, which is way too high, although the headline rate of 5.1% is good.  Lastly, an increase in interest rates will cause the dollar to strengthen, hurting our exports.

Of course, Libertarians want the Fed to allow market forces to determine interest rates, because anything the government does is, by definition, wrong and/or stupid.  Who needs the Fed anyway?

No matter what the Fed does on Thursday, it will tell us more about the Fed, than it tells us about the economy or the stock market.

Actually, watching the Fed is a lot more fun and the analysis much more intellectual than anything we will see watching presidential debates.

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