The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

Something Smells . . . ?

06/05/2020

What are you gonna believe — economics or statistics?

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their monthly employment report for May.  Economists were expecting another 8 million workers lost their jobs and that the rate of unemployment would rise from 14.7% to 19.5%.  Instead, according to this report, 8 million workers did NOT lose their jobs.  In fact, 2.5 million workers got hired.  That’s an “error” of 10.5 million — the biggest I’ve ever seen.  In addition, the rate of employment didn’t increase to 19.5%.  It dropped to “only” 13.3%.

Something smells?

There is already talk that our economic recovery will be V-shaped.  The stock market clearly reflects this, but I don’t believe it.  Today’s report makes next month’s report even more important — to see what revisions will be made to this month’s report.

Stay tuned . . .

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