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Squid-In-Chief

05/22/2014

The CEO of Goldman Sachs once famously said the firm was doing “God’s Work.”  That may or may not be true, but I am confident the highly-respected research department of that firm would never make such a comment.

For example, here are some of their more useful comments:

1.  The first quarter was worse than expected, with the economy actually shrinking, due to weather.
2.  They expect the economy to grow at a respectable 3% the rest of the year.
3.  Core inflation will end this year at 1.7% and next year at 2.0% — hardly worrisome.
4.  The benchmark rate on 10-year Treasuries will end the year at 3.25% and next year at 3.75%.
5.  The S&P 500 will end 2014 at 1,900, which means minimal growth for the rest of this year.
6.  The S&P 500 will end 2015 at a much better 2,100.
7.  Oil will continue a slow, steady drop in prices, ending next year at $90/barrel.
8.  Gold will end this year lower at $1,050/oz but increase to $1,200 by the end of 2015.
9.  The Euro will continue to weaken to $1.32 this year and $1.27 next year – so, vacation next year!
10.  The Yen will also continue to weaken to 110/$ this year and 115/$ next year.

My only issue with their analysis is that I do expect some upward pressure on the stock market in the fourth quarter, which is traditional in an off-year election.

While I agree completely with their prediction of the dollar strengthening against the Euro and Yen, I do worry what that will do to our exporters and hope they are hedging their currency risk.

By the way, since when did oil prices become so un-worrisome?  Those prices have not rattled the stock market in years.  Thank goodness for shale oil, I guess . . .

Thank God for Goldman Sachs doing God’s work . . . well, maybe their Research Department anyway!

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