The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Squid-ish Thoughts

Because they fancy themselves the smartest guys in the room, it is always good to follow the thoughts of Goldman Sachs.  Here are their latest:

1.  “Stay fully invested — we don’t have bubble troubles yet.”
2.  They like technology stocks and junk bonds.
3.  There is a 67% probability that stocks will have a 10% correction this year.  (I agree!)
4.  But, the S&P will still end the year up 3% this year and 4% next year.
5.  European stocks should gain 10% this year and average 11% per year the next five years.
6.  There is only a 20% probability of recession in the U.S.

            . . . and drum roll, please . . .

7.  “The economic risk of U.S. political gridlock around the debt ceiling and government shutdowns is negligible.”  Let us pray they are right!