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Staying Focused

09/29/2014

The most interesting travel experience I’ve ever had was in 1987, when I happened to be in Hong Kong on the day the British government announced the handover of Hong Kong to Red China.  Immediately, the vibrant exciting city become moribund.  There was no traffic on the formerly crowded streets.  The stores didn’t open.  The parks were deserted.  The people of Hong Kong had been betrayed and sold out.  Of course, China had a good PR spin, promising “one government, two systems,” which meant capitalism would be permitted in Hong Kong but not democracy.

You don’t understand China if you don’t appreciate their greatest fear is a public uprising.  For the last two nights, demonstrators have taken to the streets in Hong Kong, rattling stock markets around the world.  Today, the Dow lost 160 points at the open, and it is going to get worse.

There is zero possibility that this demonstration will accomplish anything more than getting some demonstrators killed.  (Remember Tiananmen Square in 1989?)  When the shooting starts, world stock markets will nosedive again.  Then, they will stabilize and resume their upward climb.

If you really want to lose sleep about something, then worry about Russia’s ambitions.  The media is carpet-bombing us with stories about IS or ISIS or ISIL or whatever.  With only 35-40,000 soldiers, they are insignificant compared to Russia, where their economy is sinking quickly into recession.  Their stock market has crashed, and the Ruble is at a multi-year low.  The best way to divert the Russian people from their own economic woes is to whip-up some saber-rattling war-talk.

If Putin cuts off natural gas to Europe, then Europe is immediately in recession.  This would greatly hurt U.S. growth, reducing our stock appreciation for awhile, affecting your retirement.  And, why wouldn’t he cut off the gas?

Forget Hong Kong, even forget ISIS, but stay focused on Russia!

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