The Flinchum File

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The Job of Understanding the Jobs Report

Anytime you see the futures market indicate the Dow will open up about 25 points and then, within a matter of seconds, the futures indicate the Dow will instead open up 80 points — you know there is breaking news.  If it happens on the first Friday of each month, you can bet the monthly “jobs report” was good.

And, it was good today.  Compared to expectations of about 140 thousand, there were actually 175 thousand jobs created last month.  In addition, it was learned that the job growth over December and January had been under-reported by another 25 thousand jobs.  The awful winter weather hurt us but not as badly as feared.

The unemployment rate ticked up from 6.6% last month to 6.7% this month, but that is rapidly becoming a meaningless statistic.

The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 63%, annoying Republicans.  The slight increase in government jobs was entirely at the state and local level, with no relief at the Federal level, annoying Democrats.

The most interesting thing to me was that the average hourly earnings doubled from 0.2% in January to 0.4% last month.  That’s a big change!  While I don’t think inflation is around the corner, average hourly earnings will make sudden jumps like this before inflation is apparent.

Bottom Line:  this long, lazy recovery continues on and on . . .