The Flinchum File

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The Unthinkable

Q.  When is it time to start thinking about the unthinkable?
A.  When you find yourself awake at night, staring at the dark ceiling, and worrying.

Q.  Will the President be impeached?  If so, for what impeachable offense?
A.  Yes, but the offense doesn’t really matter at this point.  “High crimes” can include most anything.  Impeachment is not about right or wrong.  It is about power.

Q.  How many presidents have been impeached?
A.  Three – Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton.  Johnson and Clinton faced a trial in the Senate and were acquitted.  Nixon was the only president to ever resign, and he was quickly pardoned by Ford.

Q.  Does it matter if the President is removed from office?
A.  Yes, it would, but it has never happened.  Plus, two-thirds of the Senate can agree on exactly nothing.  Think of an impeachment trial as another “OJ” trial, except everybody is angry.

Q.  Would impeachment be good for the country?
A.  No.

Q.  Would it be good for the stock market?
A.  Not at first, but the market would rebound when the outcome becomes more clear.

Q.  When will it happen?
A.  Not until 2019, following the midterm elections, when Republicans lose control of Congress.

Q.  What should investors do?
A.  An old Wall Street adage is “the trend is your friend.”  Enjoy the ride for now, but be sensitive to the 2018 midterm elections.  If it appears likely the Democrats will regain control, increase cash levels.  When the House Judiciary Committee begins impeachment hearing, increase cash substantially.  When the actual trial begins in the Senate, start buying.