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The Wisdom of Vampire Squids

11/20/2013

You don’t have to trust Goldman Sachs in order to respect their research department.  Here are their latest forecasts:

1.  GDP growth in 2014 will be almost 3%, which is a big improvement.  They expect both consumer spending and capital spending to pick up sharply.

2.  Congress will avoid the next round of sequestration, partially explaining the improved growth rate.

3.  Unemployment will average 6.6%, and the Fed will lower its trigger to end QE from 6.5% to 6.0%.

4.  While oil has stabilized, gold and copper will continue falling.

5.  Interest rates will finally make their move next year, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury rising from 2.7% to 3.25%.

6.  The Yen will continue to weaken, while the Euro has stabilized.

7.  Inflation will remain quiet.

8.  The S&P 500 will end next year at 1,900 — up from 1,780 where it is now.

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