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There are tides . . . and there are tides


Recently, I blogged that market reflects tidal changes in certainty and uncertainty. The market goes down when uncertainty goes up and vice versa. Increasing certainty is good for the market.

An old and dear friend sent me a Shakespearean quote from his play Julius Caesar saying

There is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;

The context was that Brutus and Cassius were debating whether to continue attacking with exhausted troops or to rest for awhile. Brutus argued above that it was time to strike, even with tired soldiers.

From an investing perspective, it may suggest taking larger individual postions when the level of confidence is higher. However, from a geo-political perspective, it suggests China should not be reluctant to exert its economic influence. It is still pre-mature to exert military influence, but that day is coming.

Hopefully, the Chinese do not read Shakespeare!

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