The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
Subscribe to the Flinchum File
View Archives

Too Good To Be True

Friday, the Department of Labor released its monthly reports of jobs created last month. It was a great report but too good to be true. Analysts expected about 185 thousand new jobs, as the economy slows down due to higher interest rates. To everyone’s surprise — no, I mean to everyone’s shock — 517 thousand new jobs were created last month. While that is not a monthly record number of jobs created, it is widest miss in history between estimated and actual. The estimate was barely a third of the actual. It is routine for the Labor Department to correct previous reports, I expect this report to be adjusted downward substantially within the next few months.

Of course, any politician in the White House will take credit for a good surprise, but I encourage them to remember they are likely to make excuses later for the downward adjustments. If they “crow” too much now, they will have to “eat crow” in the near future.