The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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What, Me Worry?

As 2016 began, worldwide stock markets were suffering with the collapse in the energy sector, as well as a slowing China.  (I was especially concerned about a derivatives default by Glencore.)  Yet, the markets recovered.

In June, the surprise Brexit vote stunned worldwide stock markets, who were terrified of the possible collapse of the European Union.  Yet, the markets recovered.  Indeed, European stock markets gained 4.81% in July!

July was good to all worldwide stock markets.  Developed markets outside the U.S. gained 5.11%.  Emerging markets gained 4.84%  Japan was up 5.73%, Latin America up 5.52%, and Australia up a whopping 6.95%.  The Dow was up a relatively modest 2.94%.

It would be pleasant to believe these improving worldwide stock markets reflect improving worldwide economies.  Oh, how naive!  Part of this good stock performance is undoubtedly due to some stabilization in China’s economy and the energy sector, but most is due to increasing confidence in central banks to keep increasing the supply of money.  As long as they keep playing the music, stock markets will continue dancing.  Darn it!