The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions



In the fourth quarter, the Fed looked hostile.  I argued Quantitative Tightening would kill the market.  Q4 was the worst quarter in 20 years.

In the first quarter of this year, the Fed turned neutral and the Chinese tariff negotiations turned optimistic.  Q1 was the best quarter in 10 years.

Tech stocks, real estate and industrials led the way, with Materials, Finance, and Healthcare bringing up the rear.

For the first time in recent memory, emerging markets out-performed developed markets.

Because interest rates softened, almost all bonds gained value, with junk bonds gaining the most, at 6.8%.

Energy gained a whopping 25.08%, while precious metals were flat.

Is this pattern sustainable?  I hope not!  I would rather see the Dow go up 30-40 points a day instead of this wild whipsawing volatility.  It’s not healthy.

“Corporate Earnings are the mother’s milk of stock prices.”  Corporate earnings did not drop as much as the market in Q4, nor increase as much as the market in Q1.

Former Harvard endowment head, Co-CIO of Pimco, and chief advisor to Allianz, Mohammed El-Erian, said this morning that he likes cash.  So do I . . .

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