The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions



Yes, we are headed into a recession.  Of course, there is ALWAYS a recession coming, but I think the next one will become visible next year.

Yes, the stock market will suffer.  History suggests the market will drop 25% over a 13-month period, before rebounding.

Yes, you should sell all your stocks at the market high and buy them back at the market low.  Good Luck doing the impossible !?!

Yes, Warren Buffet says you should buy a stock when you like that stock and sell it when you no longer like that stock.  What recessions?

Yes, the S&P 500 has lost value every fourth year, on average, from 1926 to 2018.

Yes, if looking at 5-year holding periods, it has lost value once every eight cycles.

Yes, if looking at 10-holding periods, it has never lost value.

Yes, “buy-and-hold” investors should sleep well . . .

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