One of my favorite thought leaders is the brilliant but affable Jeremy Siegel of Wharton. In his latest commentary, he thinks the stock market will remain relatively range-bound for the next 3-4 months before a breakout upwards. The continued flow of cash from the Fed is the major support of the economy. For example, M2, the conventional measure of money supply continues to reach new highs.
My only disagreement is that he sees last month’s strong unemployment report as meaningful. However, the government has admitted it made a “miscalculation error” (love that expression – not a calculation error, but a miscalculation error). It did not account for the millions of workers who were “furloughed” instead of laid-off. That report leaves me much less bullish, at least until the next unemployment report on July 3rd.
He also is optimistic that the latest surge in Covid-19 will not be overwhelming the medical system in those affected states. Then, he makes the interesting point that market strategists care more about the virus, while economists care more about M2, the money supply. Isn’t that a little like saying you care more about your left foot than your right foot?