The Dow has lost 5% of its value in the last three days, 8% for the more tech-heavy NASDAQ – why? Is it over? All I know is (1) the stock market can only go three ways – up, down, or stay the same, (2) Warren Buffet taught us that, given enough time, the stock market always goes up, and (3) bears are more scary…
Like most people, I felt mixed emotions when Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race . . . but mostly relief. Over decades of experience as a trust officer, I saw a surprising amount of dementia among clients and their families. It is a major source of both sadness and stress for everybody. Republicans and Democrats will quibble endlessly whether Joe Biden did anything…
Back when it was fashionable to be a nerd, you could always brag you were “uploading” your back-office files to the “Cloud” . . . whatever that was? As it turned out, the Cloud is a safe, inexpensive way to preserve and protect all your “data”. In those days, you could still ask dumb questions, such as “how do I know it is safe? or…
Following the attack on Trump this week, both the current President and the past President have asked the American people to “bring down the heat” of our rhetoric . . . fair enough, you say . . . but how? I believe it is difficult to yell at somebody when your mouth is full of food! If you are a Republican, when was the last…
Usually attributed to Voltaire and numerous others . . . The thoughts, opinions, and emotions expressed herein are strictly those of Jim Flinchum, not Bay Capital Advisors nor any humans associated with Bay Capital.
How terrible! Some young punk, with more guns than brains, came within one inch of killing our former President, Donald Trump. Remember guns don’t kill people, but young punks with guns can come within one inch of killing one of the most protected men on the planet??? Maybe, the easy availability of guns might be one minor little contributing factor?? You think . . .…
After Thursday’s mild inflation report, I listened to two rocket scientists discussing it on TV. They rattled on about how inflation is a tax on consumers, especially poor consumers, because their dollar doesn’t buy as much. (yada . . . yade . . . yada) They cited some study (that I never heard of) that “snacks” cost 34% more now than they cost in 2019.…
My father became a born-again Christian while serving in Europe during World War II. He has been a loyal Republican voter since Eisenhower. (I don’t think he ever voted for a Democrat?) Then he got old. He was indignant when I removed the guns from his house. He cried when I took his car keys. I cried as I drove away from his nursing home.…
Economic America is stronger than Political America. Inflation is dropping, albeit more slowly, but that’s expected as we get closer to the 2% goal. Unemployment is already quite low. Twice as many jobs are still available as applicants. Home prices are healthy, maybe even too healthy. Our GDP growth rate is not great, but it is still among the best in the industrialized world. Economic…
Any American close to an English friend faces this annual dilemma: How do you share the fun-spirit of our Independence Day from England, with our English friends? Most Americans just exclude those English friends.Some Americans just offer a ceremonial hot dog & cold beer to anybody with a British accent.I’ve found the Brits are fine with anything, as long as they can laugh about how…
I pray that God continues to bless All Americans!Young or old, tall or short, smart or dumb . . . all Americans!All Christians, Jews, Muslims, miscellaneous, and atheists too!All colors too – black, white, brown, yellow or pink. I pray that God blesses Republicans and Democrats . . . who drive us all crazy.All politicians who are patriotic, instead of partisan.All government workers, who are…
Just like real people, long-time students of the stock market have their favorite movies. Remember “The Graduate”, a 1967 romantic comedy? There is one scene early in the movie where Dustin Hoffman is cornered by a drunk (?) stockbroker at a cocktail party, who repeatedly whispers the one word “plastics”, suggesting that is THE future industry to be invested in. The audience laughed at such…
Don’t telephone my 100-year-old father after 5PM! He is asleep by that time. As a boy, I remember that he kept a more normal sleep schedule. His bedtime was 9-10PM. As he aged, he went to bed earlier and earlier, which is not uncommon for the elderly. However, I have recently learned there is such a thing as “sundowning”, which is a little understood set…
My parents always told me NEVER to discuss religion, politics, or the best way to raise children. That has never been more true. In overly-opinionated America, nobody cares what you think anyway, because they already know you are WRONG! Whether you are right or wrong, could you ever – EVER – convince your neighbor that either President Biden needs to resign or maybe, former President…
Presidential debates are held every four years. Oscars are presented annually. Which is more important? The objective of Oscars is to drive ticket sales, and the objective of debate are to drive votes. One honors movie-making, while the other encourages myth-making. One cares more about foreign sales than foreign policy. Of course, nobody ever confused the Presidential debate with a fashion show? I have never…
When do good intentions go bad? Anybody who has ever visited Stonehenge in England has experienced a sense of wonder – how did such large stones/rocks get carved and especially how did they get moved so far by such primitive peoples? What is the architectural significance? Why circular? What religious/cultural significance does it hold? Why no written record of the people/artisans? I’m confident that none…
When does sympathy become annoyance? I have the greatest sympathy for investors suffering from inflation derangement syndrome. Young investors in particular seem to view inflation as cancer, Covid, and venereal disease at the same time. Inflation is bad enough without the hysteria! All that’s understandable, I guess, but what is annoying is this – why the assumption that we are helpless to fight inflation? Has…
You can sometimes respect something done even if you don’t respect those who did it. Narrow respect is different than broad agreement. Last weekend, the Israeli Special Forces rescued four of their citizens who had been taken hostage during the October 7th massacre by Hamas at a music festival. Unfortunately, well over 200 civilians were also killed in the rescue operation. Sometimes, doing the right…
Wall Street pundits often marvel that investors pay so much attention to the stock market and so little attention to the bond market. They compare the stock market to the little cherry on top of a huge ice cream sundae or the bond market. Investors fret about the cherry and not the underlying ice cream. The relationship is not always logical. For example, sometimes the…
My 100-year-old father always told me to look for the light in the darkness — that the key to living long is to laugh often. Did you know there is a fire engine at the bottom of the English Channel? It was day-three of Operation Overlord as they approached Omaha Beach in Normandy. The landing craft was being loaded. As the fire engine was being…
in my hometown of Virginia Beach . . .A crazy guy killed twelve innocent local folks. The Democrats are wrong and . . .the Republicans are wrong! Democrats complain there are too many guns.Republicans complain there are too many crazy people.Maybe, they’re both right? Too bad neither Democrats nor Republicans can walk and chew gum at the same time. The thoughts, opinions, and emotions in…
For years, several companies, like UPS and FedEx, had the ability to move a package thousands of miles overnight, but getting that package delivered to the buyer was the hard part. It was called the “Last Mile Problem.” Then, Amazon came along and solved that problem. Maybe, we should hire Jeff Bezos to eliminate the last vestiges of inflation? Dropping from 9.3% a year ago…
Among our national holidays is Memorial Day. Living in a beach community, it means tourist season is here, so the cash registers can ring more often. Traffic becomes congested, and we eat more unhealthy food. Why do summer vacations need to be memorialized anyway? Veterans tend to think Veterans Day is more important, because the real meaning of Memorial Day is overwhelmed by the hamburgers,…
Wells Fargo is doing an excellent series of articles examining the relationship between our GDP growth rate and our national debt. One installment begins with the classic comment from former President Herbert Hoover, who said “Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt.” It concludes we have the economic capability and begs the question of whether we have the political capability. Must…
There has been much consternation about the numerous campus demonstrations recently, which are largely an emotional reaction to the brutality in Gaza. For a comparison of demonstrations over time, let’s call them the Boomer demonstrations and Gen-Z demonstrations. The Boomer demonstrations started in the US and spread worldwide. The Gen-Z demonstrations started in the Mideast and spread worldwide. During the Boomer demonstrations, young Americans railed…
In 2008, the world was in the crushing grip of “The Great Recession.” To offer assurance to my clients that the sun would indeed rise tomorrow, I started writing this blog. I explained that it was a global financial crisis, not “your father’s Great Depression” and explained the differences . . . numerous times. At first, I published a new blog entries frequently, as the…
Sometimes, children are afraid of the “monster” hiding under their bed – an honest fear but irrational.Americans tend to be afraid of the inflation “monster” hiding in economic data – an honest fear but irrational.Inflation has already dropped from 9% to 3%, but some expect inflation to drop smoothly and predictably.Because inflation actually increased slightly last month, they are afraid inflation is exploding? NOPE! Higher…
As a boy, my hero was Davey Crockett, who famously defended the Alamo in 1836, using the butt of his rifle after his ammo was exhausted. As a teenager, my hero was my father, who was part of the Normandy Invasion during World War II and spent his first night on French soil sheltering from falling debris, under a German jeep with the corpse of…
Like most people, I am disgusted with most people. Sometimes however, it takes a gentle splash of warm water in the face to remember that most people are indeed warm and good. During a recent trip to the Amazon jungle, I was crossing one the rope bridges so common there when a misstep caused a groin pull – not the worst one ever but enough…
Some things never change, such as – the incumbent political party says the economy is doing great, while the opposing party says things are terrible. That’s normal. While the majority of economists, myself included, predicted a mild recession at worst, it looks like economic conditions are indeed stronger than any of us anticipated. Here’s what is unusual: Less than half of the American people believe…
Which is worse? Herpes or those Plexaderm TV commercials? WRONG! Neither is as annoying as the never-ending coverage of the Presidential campaign(s)! Perhaps, Presidential campaigns are more important than Plexaderm . . . perhaps . . . but they are also even more annoying. It’s not merely the never-ending commercials but also the breathless news (?) coverage that amplifies it . . . and cheapens…
For the last decade or so, cryptocurrencies like bitcoin had enjoyed an illicit love affair on Wall Street. I wrote then that there is nothing you can do with bitcoin that you cannot do with dollars, unless you’re a drug dealer who wants payment in the middle of the night. Since then, I have watched, first with amusement and later with horror, as the younger…
I attended the funeral of a friend and neighbor today. A retired Naval captain, he wore that dignity well, and I saluted him. Unfortunately, his fifteen-year-old heart bypass suddenly blew out . . . and he was gone. Watching his small black-draped widow struggling with her tears, one felt her pain and abandonment. Even thought she was surrounded by family, she was utterly alone. Talking…