Senator John McCain has always been one of my personal heroes.  When he was trashed last year by then-candidate Donald Trump, who even denigrated McCain’s war record as a prisoner-of-war, I saw very clearly the naked character of Trump.  Readers may recall I wrote that Trump was trash and not fit to be president.  Trashing McCain was a red-line for me!

Nonetheless, he is now my president.  If ordered into combat by him, I would go.  If I could take a bullet to protect him, I would.  I wish him only the greatest success, because that is good for the country I love.

Of course, it is not that easy when you are responsible for the financial health of others.  My expectation is that Trump will be bad for America.  (Yes, I do understand supply-side economics and dynamic scoring.)  But, how do I protect my clients?

My greatest fear is always a financial crisis, because they happen so quickly and recover so slowly.  Fortunately, there is a distant-early-warning system.  For example, when I see the prices of credit default swaps rise unexpectedly, especially for money-center banks or sovereign debt, I know the stage is being set for a financial crisis.  The same can be true for the TED spread or interest rate differential between Treasuries and euro dollars.

Naturally, I worry about a bear market (down 20%) for the stock market.  There are many components to that particular distant-early-warning system, such as the “death cross” when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.  Or, the A/D ratio of advancing stocks compared to declining stocks.  I know those distant-early-warning signals and follow them.

Everybody is always worried about recessions, it seems.  This is the least of my worries.  Unless sparked by a financial crisis, a recession is usually visible far ahead of time.  There are many, many economic indicators, maybe too many, which just confuse investors.  For most investors, minor recessions are best ignored.

But, what is the triggering data-point for a political crisis?  Is it when the impeachment paperwork is filed?  (Make no mistake:  an impeachment is a grueling, painful experience for everybody!)  Is it when China announces a ban on U.S. imports?  Is it the first time the President deploys our military?  Or, the second time?  Is it when a blue state like California files for succession?  Or, is it when a red state like Texas files?

I’m searching for useful triggers . . . any suggestions?