For the last twelve months, our economy has produced 180,000 jobs each month.  For the last three months, it has produced 165,000 jobs each month.  Last month,it produced 156,000.  The slowing trend is not Trump’s friend.

Economists argue that the slowing trend is a good sign, reflecting the tightening labor force, and they are right.  But, there are two things for the President-Elect to consider, in order to win real bragging rights.  First, wages have started to rise, as employers try to retain and recruit employees.  Average earnings are up 2.9% on a year-over-year basis for the last year.  This is the highest rate of wage increase since the Great Recession of 2008.  If the new president can accelerate that, he deserves legitimate bragging rights.

Second, Republicans tend to focus on the Labor Force Participation Rate, or what percentage of the potential workforce is either working or looking for work.  Before the Great Recession, it was about 80%.  Most everybody worked in those days, except retirees and housewives.  Today, it is only 62.7%.  Democrats point out that Baby Boomers are retiring.  Republicans point out that unemployment insurance and generous welfare encourages people to stay out of the workforce.  However, getting these long-term unemployed back into the workforce will not be easy.  Most of them have been unemployed so long that their job skills are obsolete.

It is alleged that the President-Elect is no stranger to bragging, but he will earn legitimate bragging rights if he ignores the unemployment rate and ignores job creation and instead focuses on (1) increasing average wages and (2) increasing the Labor Force Participation Rate.