The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

That Old-Time Religion ?


I just finished reading “Religion’s Sudden Decline:  What is Causing It and What Comes Next” by Ronald Inglehart in 2021.  He is a professor at the University of Michigan.  The book is a scholarly work and, as such, is not easy reading.  The first half of the book is full of references to the work … Continue reading That Old-Time Religion ?

Fair and Balanced


Republicans and Democrats make lousy financial advisors.  However, MODERATE Republicans and MODERATE Democrats make excellent financial advisors, but they are tough to find.  That’s why it is necessary to say something NEGATIVE about a politician before saying anything POSITIVE. NEGATIVE:  Neither President Biden nor the Democratic Party have any clue, much less any understanding, of … Continue reading Fair and Balanced

Noise & More Noise


There is a lot of noise out there!  Inflation is running wild.  Shortages are everywhere, from cars to baby formula.  The sky is falling??  Why aren’t you more worried?? Of course, curbing inflation is critical, but I’m optimistic it will be largely controlled by year-end for several reasons. First, the Fed may have been late … Continue reading Noise & More Noise

Crypto Crash


This is NOT an “I told you so” blog entry! Last week’s crash of crypto values was terrifying, with some losses as much as 90%.  There was a real human-dimension to this, with multiple bankruptcies.  Let us not be insensitive to their losses. When Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies became newsworthy some years ago, I was … Continue reading Crypto Crash

Suppliers Supply ??


Keynesian economists see recessions as a failure of demand.  Consumers don’t want to buy or cannot buy the goods that are produced.  Deficit spending by the government covers that shortfall in demand, thus avoiding recession.  Inflation only happens when demand increases more or faster than supply.  This is called fiscal policy and is governed by … Continue reading Suppliers Supply ??



Republicans tend to look at the flow of illegal immigrants on our Southern border and see scruffy dope-pushers with no respect for American laws nor American values.  Democrats tend to look at the flow of undocumented workers on our Southern border and see wretched refugees fleeing persecution from gangs and corrupt politicians.  Economists, however, see … Continue reading “American-wannabes”

The Wall of Worry


Have you ever said . . . there is nothing to worry about?  Ever?? Worrying is what humans do, especially investors.  We worry . . . a lot!  Pundits joke that Wall Street is ALWAYS trying to climb a Wall of Worry.  Sometimes, the Wall is tall.  Sometimes, it is short. There was a time, … Continue reading The Wall of Worry

Strong Dollar = Weak Report


For many years, the traditional but unofficial definition of a recession has been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  Since the first read on GDP in the first quarter was a negative 1.4%, does that mean a negative number in the second quarter will show us in a recession?  No! The fourth quarter of … Continue reading Strong Dollar = Weak Report

Short-lived Success ?


In the classical world of economics, Earth is little more than a glorified auction house.  If more people want something, they will bid up the price to get what they want.  However, when supply increases more than demand, buyers will demand lower prices.  Fewer buyers = less demand = lower prices. After Putin invaded Ukraine, … Continue reading Short-lived Success ?

Darts Hurt ?


When I agree with a Republican position, I often get complaints from Democratic readers.  When I agree with a Democratic position, I often get complaints from Republican readers.  The most vociferous complaint was a few years ago, when I wrote that social media was a “clear & present danger” to our democracy.  He even said … Continue reading Darts Hurt ?

What Happened on Friday?


Imagine a kid with a belly full of jelly beans plus a can of Mountain Dew, who is complaining about a bellyache but cries when given a tablespoon of Pepto-Bismol or other medicine. That’s how I see the current stock market.  After riding high thorough a pandemic with a belly full of deficit spending and … Continue reading What Happened on Friday?

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