September is usually the worse month of the year for the stock market. But, the worse week of the year is usually the week in September having the third Friday. Grab your calendar and you’ll see that we’re right now in the middle of worse week all year, historically. One reason is that the “triple … Continue reading Buckle Up
The Flinchum FileThoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
I have never seen much value to crypto-currencies like bitcoin, except for criminals and speculators. However, the collapse of Afghanistan has demonstrated other uses. Importantly, crypto-currencies are easier to hide from the Taliban than Dollars. In addition, crypto-currencies allow Afghan citizens in the U.S. to send spendable money to family remaining in Afghanistan without governmental … Continue reading Current Thoughts on Crypto-Currency
For twenty years, I have remembered September 11th as the day when I watched the Pentagon burning from my fifth floor office, as the wind pushed the smoke into my wife’s office on the Potomac. Including the World Trade Center, 2,996 Americans died that day. For eighty years, elderly Americans have remembered the sneak attack … Continue reading The Persistence of Memory
In early August, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment crashed to a ten-year-low. Not surprising as consumers were weighed down by the Covid surge, rising concern over possible inflation, the fragility of our supply chain, and the painful images of our troops leaving Afghanistan. It was a depressing month. In late August, the … Continue reading August Confidence
I have voted for Republicans, and I have voted for Democrats, but I’ve never been as disgusted with both as I am right now. Imagine you’re attending the wake or memorial ceremony for your spouse. As you’re sitting there, with your head bowed, when someone barges into the sanctuary and screams “it is all your … Continue reading A Pox On R’s and D’s
We’re living during interesting times. We just learned that GDP growth during the second quarter was a sizzling 6.6% — even better than expected. Corporate profits surged 9.2% — also much better than expected. It’s not surprising that the stock markets keep setting new record highs. What, me worry? The Grim Reaper called Covid still … Continue reading What, Me Worry ?
If the first casualty of military warfare is the truth, then the first casualty of partisan warfare is academic debate. Maybe, the Socratic approach won’t offend. . . ? Assuming Ronald Reagan was correct that America is that shiny city on the hill, does that mean non-Americans will want to be there ? If continued … Continue reading Socratic Conversation?
Let’s say you have two neighbors. Neighbor #1 picks up a baseball bat and hits neighbor #2, before handing the bat to the neighbor he just hit. Neighbor #2 takes the bat and hits neighbor #1, before handing the bat back to neighbor #1. As they continue to hit each other, do you think they … Continue reading What’s the Point ??
Famed World War II General Douglas MacArthur said “Old soldiers never die. They just fade away.” The same can be said about old theories. In 1986, three professors named Brinson, Hood, & Beebower (BHB) published a research paper entitled “Determinants of Portfolio Performance.” They showed 93.6% of a portfolio’s performance was determined by the asset … Continue reading Old Theories Never Die . . .
One of my long-running complaints with the financial planning profession is that it has become too academic. If planners spent less time memorizing IRS Code sections and more time looking into the eyes of their clients, it would be a better world. Estate planning is the most stark example – full of tax and probate … Continue reading That Final Walk
The most closely watched economic report each month is the “Jobs Report” on the first Friday. Today’s report was surprisingly strong, with 943 thousand new jobs created last month, a hundred thousand more than expected. Plus, we learned that the number of jobs created in May and June were even more than we realized. The … Continue reading Strengthening Economy = Strong Jobs Report
My Republican-friends like to blame everything on the mainstream media. My Democratic friends like to blame everything on greedy, rich “fat-cats”. They’re both wrong! My Republican-friends see the immigration problem as a bunch of lazy, disease-ridden derelicts trying to milk American generosity. My Democratic friends see the immigration problem as a bunch of poor, miserable, … Continue reading Just Economics?
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