Last month, the report showed only 74 thousand jobs had been created in December, even though 200 thousand jobs had been expected.  (It also showed the rate of unemployment had dropped from 7% to only 6.7%, but that has become an almost meaningless number.)  The media emphasized the small number of jobs created in December but ignored the fact that the number of jobs created in October and November were revised sharply upwards.  At the time, I wrote that number of only 74 thousand jobs would also be revised upwards, and we’ll find out Friday if that is true.

In fairness, estimating the number of jobs created during the winter is the most difficult season to make such estimates due to the unpredictable weather, and it is probably even more difficult this winter.  Unfortunately, the stock market still reacts the same to the number.

Right now, the market is expecting 170 thousand jobs were created in January.  If the report says anything less than 150 thousand, the market will sink.  If it says anything more than 190 thousand, the market will rally.  The monthly ADP report of jobs created in the private sector was released this morning, and it was slightly disappointing at 175 thousand but down substantially from the 238 thousand jobs created in the private sector in December.  That will likely reduce expectations from 170 thousand to something lower, and the range will move lower as well.

Until the Friday morning release, the stock market normally just treads water . . . waiting . . .