Bob Doll is the chief equity officer for investment giant Nuveen.  For an investment strategist, he is remarkably humble and affable.  Each year, he makes 10 predictions and has a good track record.  With my comments in parenthesis, here are his 2020 predictions:

1. The world avoids recession in 2020 as U.S. GDP grows over 2% and global GDP grows over 3%.  (Fingers crossed)

2. Inflation and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield end the year above 2% as the Fed stays on hold through the election.  (Agree)

3. Earnings fall short of expectations, partially due to rising wage rates.  (Agree)

4. Stocks, bonds and cash all return less than 5% for only the fourth time in 25 years.  (See #3)

5. Non-U.S. stocks outpace U.S. stocks as the dollar retreats.  (Agree)

6. Value and cyclicals outperform growth and defensive stocks.  (??)

7. Financials, technology and health care outperform utilities, real estate and consumer discretionary.  (Agree)

8. Active equity managers outperform their indexes for the first time in a decade.  (About time)

9. The cold wars within the U.S. and between the U.S. and China continue.  (Duh . . .)

10. The U.S. concludes a tumultuous political year with a status quo election.  (Trump wins)

2020 Outlook

The theme of our 2020 Predictions is uncertainties diminish, but markets struggle. We intentionally draw on the fact that we see both positives and negatives for stocks as we head into the coming year. As we indicated earlier, some key risks look more manageable, while other fundamental factors may be working against the markets. Economic growth could pick up as we head into 2020, but we don’t think stocks will come close to the lofty results they reached this past year.