The stock market is often considered a predictor of the economy.  (Of course, January is usually the best month of the year, as new retirement money flows into the market.)  The stock market is indicating an improving U.S. economy

The stock market is becoming increasingly sanguine about the possibility of a European solution, with the notion that a Greek default is already priced into those companies that would be most affected.  Importantly, the negotiations between the Greeks and their bondholders, which broke down last week, are going much better now.  They are under pressure to wrap up a deal this weekend, before the European summit of finance ministers on Monday.

The Greek deal is important because it would be a template for future deals.  This could be a decisive weekend . . . keep your fingers crossed!

The real drop-dead date will be before March 20th.  That is the day Greece will have to have new funding.  But, the lawyers say it will take eight weeks to do the paperwork, which means we must have the deal very soon.  Also in March, the Italian government goes back for a huge bond re-financing.

One way or the other, I suspect we will have more certainty very soon . . . and that’s a good thing!