Historically, September and October are the worst months of the year.  Further, either the first or fourth quarters are usually the best quarters each year.  Today, the world started the fourth quarter on a weak note, with both Asia and Europe down about 2%.  At this hour, futures indicate the U.S. markets will open down slightly.

Given the continuing crisis in Europe and nagging impotence in Washington, as well as slowing growth worldwide, it should not be surprising that I’m looking forward to the first quarter next year more than the fourth quarter this year.

In the meantime, this first week of each month is usually one of the most interesting, as the market goes into a state of semi-suspended animation until the all-important Jobs Report is released on the first Friday of each month.  That number easily moves the market, and traders are afraid of making big bets before that release, especially on Fridays, normally the most volatile day of the week anyway.

Although it will drift up or down before Friday, the current consensus forecast is that 63 thousand jobs were created in September.  Percentage-wise, this is up considerably from August when zero jobs were created but still far, far below the 300 thousand jobs we need to create each month.  If we are significantly above the consensus forecast, Friday will be a good day.  If below, Friday will be another bad day, probably like the fourth quarter.

Maybe, we’ll get the usual “Santa Claus Rally” this year . . . keep your fingers crossed!