The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
Subscribe to the Flinchum File
View Archives

A Peek Ahead from NABE

I’ve been a member of the National Association of Business Economists for many years now.  They are mostly working economists, not academic economists.  And, I always look forward to their economic survey of members.  According to the latest:

1.  Due to weather primarily, GDP growth in the first quarter was only 1.9%, but it is expected to accelerate to 3% for the next three quarters.  For the full year, it should be 2.8% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015.

2.  The probability of recession is only 15%.

3.  Unemployment averaged 7.4% last year and is expected to average 6.4% this year and 6.1% next year.

4.  Interest rates will rise 50-75 basis points by the end of next year.

5.  Housing prices will gain 5% this year nationwide and another 4% next year.

6.  The dollar will hold relatively steady but increase modestly against the euro.

7.  “The federal deficit is expected to total $557 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2014 and $536 billion in FY2015, well below the $680 billion deficit recorded in FY2013.”

8.  The S&P 500 should end this year at 1,950 and end next year at 2,047.  This is an increase from their December prediction of ending this year at 1,850.  Corporate profits are expected to grow 7% both this year and next year.

All in all, it is a pretty sanguine forecast . . . almost boring . . . which is good, very good!  We’ve had enough drama in the stock market and the economy over the last six years.