As a long-time member of the National Association of Business Economics, I follow their surveys closely. In their latest, it is clear they see no prospect of recession during the next two years. Here are some thoughts:
Look at the sharp rise in earnings from the third quarter (Q3) of this year to the next quarter. Obviously, other members are more optimistic than I am, and I hope they are right.
Also, notice the declining growth in earnings while sales remains relatively flat. That is a normal behavior for later stages of the business cycle. But, we are not near the end of the business cycle.
