For years, I’ve wondered how the United States got caught in the crossfire from a tribal duel between Sunni Muslims and Shiite Muslims.  They’ve only hated each other for 800 years, yet we seem to think there is something to win?

Remember the long gas lines and short tempers during the Arab oil embargo 1972?  Back then, the Middle East mattered, because they had the oil.  In the long 53 years since then, a few things have changed.  One is that the Middle East is not nearly as important – not unimportant but certainly less important.  That is one big advantage to fracking.  (Besides, with Venezuela collapsing, we may get access to even more oil.)  We just don’t need the Middle East now as much as we needed them in 1972

What would you like to do in Syria?  Take your choice between supporting the murderous Assad or watching another hundred thousand civilians die.  Maybe, we don’t have to make that decision.  Maybe, egocentric Putin would like to take our place.  Are we that lucky?

From his standpoint, it would give the Russian people a bright shiny object to focus their attention somewhere besides their lousy economy and election fraud.  Assad would remain in power, but Putin would have to deal with him, not us.

From Iran’s standpoint, they get the “American Satan” out of the Middle East.  In the long run, they will alienate the Russians as bad as they do everybody else.  Don’t think the Islamic government of Iran will ever get too cozy with the Russian infidels from the north.

Together, to destroy ISIS, they will have to destroy the majority of Sunni Muslims in Iraq.  Once done, the Shiites of Iran and the infidels of Russia will have to deal with the rest of the Arab world, which is almost entirely Sunni, including Saudi Arabia.  Good luck with that!  (85% of all Muslims are Sunni.)

From our standpoint, we have to deal with the male ego of withdrawing from the Middle East, after losing thousands of lives, wounding tens of thousands of good Americans, and spending over THREE TRILLION DOLLARS.  The rest of the world will say we retreated, with our tail between our legs.  Darn it, there’s that male ego thing again!

In ten years, the broke Russians will be both bankrupt and hated.  Iran will be isolated in the Arab world, controlling their own oil plus Iraqi oil, in a world less oil dependent than ever before.  (10% of Texas electricity already comes from wind power, as an example.)

Try telling a man that you’ll respect him at some point in the future — he wants respect NOW.  Unfortunately, so do nations.  Or, is that just male national leaders?  Is our Y-chromosome keeping us from making the best strategic decision for the long-term?