The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
Subscribe to the Flinchum File
View Archives

Don’t Look Behind the Curtain

Readers will recall my tongue-in-cheek New Year’s Resolution was to become chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) in order to save the party from its extremists.  America needs the Republican Party, the Grand Old Party, but it is being abused by extreme purists.

The sequester is expected to decrease 2013 GDP by 0.6%, according to the CBO.  This is not crushing, just stupid.  One pundit on Fox described it as cutting off two toes when the doctor said your body mass index is too high.  Instead of losing weight in the belly, which is necessary, the patient just cuts off something else, which is just stupid.

Depending on how you measure it, entitlements now make up about 43% of our total budget, and it is still rising more rapidly that any other major line item in the budget.  Entitlements refer to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.  These incredibly expensive programs are also incredibly popular.  Of course, if I can borrow money from another generation and never have to repay it, why wouldn’t I like it?

For every one dollar we spend on the next generation, we spend $4.20 on the last generation.  Even worse, 40% of that money is borrowed.  Is the purpose of government to take care of old people?  I can at least ask that question, because I will soon be 66 years old.  I’m already on Medicare and eligible for Social Security in a few months.  Is taking care of me the primary function of government?  What makes it un-American to ask whether I “deserve” such largess from other taxpayers?

Sequestration reflects our national inability to focus on that question.  Failure to focus on that crucial issue is damaging our military and delaying infrastructure development and decreasing GDP.

This stupid idea of sequestration came from the President, who readily admits it is stupid.  His calculus was that the Republicans would never allow the Pentagon to be gutted.  I would have agreed that Republicans would never throw Defense under the bus . . .at least Ronald Reagan would not have.  But, the extreme purists in the G.O.P. have no problem doing so.

The biggest problem with sequestration is it makes us too sanguine about future policy.  Only one in four Americans are even following the story.  Call it “policy-fatigue.”  Like the frog who is boiled to death if the water temperature is raised slowly enough,  sequestration raises the water temperature just before we have a government shutdown on March 28th.

Sequestration and government shutdowns can damage the economy but are unlikely to cause a financial crisis.  The third ring in this three-ring circus is raising the debt ceiling, which looks like it will be in July or August.  That could cause a much more serious problem.

All of this because we will not focus on the issue of how much our GDP should be spent on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.  We’d rather focus on cutting off our toes than losing belly fat.

One problem with extremists is that they force moderates to defend the other side, out of some sense of fairness.  Republicans want to give the President authority to allocate the spending cuts in sequestration, because it will expose his priorities and provide lots of ammunition for later battles.  Well, he has already offered two cuts in the far-more-important battle over entitlement spending, i.e., chain-weighted cost of living increases and means-testing.  That is a big deal as an opening bid.  Republicans could improve upon this by negotiation.  But, they are afraid the voters will punish them for attacking these popular but wasteful programs.

Politicians are afraid to pull back the curtain and face older voters . . . like me!  So, we cut everything else?? We cut the things that don’t need to be cut but but not the things that do need to be cut.  Yes, that fits the definition of stupid!