One of my long-time favorite market strategists is Dr. Jeremy Siegel from Wharton. His latest commentary shows his belief that the stock market would jump 10% – if the trade wars would suddenly end.
That is consistent with my belief that the market has moved sideways all year, even though corporate earnings continue to rise strongly. The stock market has not kept up with rising earnings. It is being depressed by the trade wars.
One difference I have with him is that he believes the low unemployment rate will drive the Fed to increase rates two more times this year, while I believe the Fed will be too afraid of the stock market’s reaction to inverting the yield curve and will only raise rates one time.