Today,we learned that retail sales increased less than expected.  Expecting higher sales, retailers naturally increased their inventories.  Not surprisingly, today we learned that inventories rose more than expected.  Holding inventory is not without cost to retailers, suggesting lower retail profits later.  Today, we also learned that small business optimism decreased broadly, which should not be surprising with disappointing retail sales.

The fourth piece of economic data released today was that the producer price index actually rose this month, after dropping three straight months due to dropping oil prices.  Firmer prices in the supply chain suggests some firming of demand, which might be the “green shoot” we’re looking for.

Knowing the first quarter was a little slow is simply confirmed by today’s releases.  More importantly, how does the second quarter look?  So far, so good . . . stay tuned.