There are those who think the legendary investment house of Goldman Sachs has “the smartest guys in the room.”  I am not one of those.  However, I do think their research department has “the smartest guys in Goldmen Sachs.”  Their research is always thoughtful and generally well-written!  Here are five thoughtul quotes from their latest research:

1.  The resilient US expansion may get a nudge from fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending, though US trade and European electoral risk may be noticeable counterweights.

2.  Global inflationary pressures appear subdued, but price pressures are unfolding in the US amid market expectations for sizable fiscal stimulus and a shrinking output gap.

3.  Despite the likelihood of rate hikes in the US, we expect policy to remain supportive globally. (That means low rates.)

4.  From the US Republican sweep to upcoming European elections, we expect macro risk to be amplified by unpredictable political outcomes.  Populism has proven difficult to size and price.

5.  Besides global politics, we are watching other persistent risk sources, the pace of US rate tightening, the sustainability of the Chinese recovery, and corporate earnings.

In other words, they see no recession in the near future and are worried what damage politicians might do, here and abroad . . . but who isn’t?