President Trump rightly said that he is waging a war against an invisible enemy. Estimates of fatalities from this war range from a high of 2 million Americans to a low of only 80 thousand over six months — truly horrific! While all deaths are tragic, some comparison with “normal” wars against a visible enemy is instructive.
Total deaths in Korean War were 54,246 over four years.
Total deaths in Vietnam were 58,209 over fourteen years.
Total deaths in Iraq War was 4,576 over eight years.
Total deaths in Afghanistan have been 2,263+ over nineteen years.
There are three important differences in any comparison between wars with visible and invisible enemies. First, wars against visible enemies have political causes, while the current war has a biological cause. Political causes can be negotiated, while biological causes cannot. Second, none of the traditional “visible” wars have ever caused the economy to shut down so suddenly. Second, this “invisible” war may be more traumatic, because the loss of life will be concentrated in just six (?) months. If Americans are especially shell-shocked from this short but intense war, how quickly can we expect them to return to spending like before? After all, consumer spending is two-thirds of our economy. My expectation is that consumer demand is building rapidly and will explode when it is possible, setting off a short bout with inflation.
