This week, I sat quietly and listened to several discussions among intelligent people about the Gordian Knot that is North Korea. Such discussions usually recite a laundry list of things we cannot do, because it would involve the loss of human life. It seems to me that the loss of human life is inevitable in this geopolitical tar-baby. Eventually, the “crazy, fat kid,” as Senator…
As the economy has fairly-steadily improved since the global financial crisis in 2009 and as the stock market has risen nicely since then, worker-pay has remained stubbornly unchanged. However, the latest data is much more optimistic. The Employment Cost Index has just posted its best quarterly performance since 2007! Undoubtedly, this reflects the tight labor market . . . finally . . . and probably…
In this country, we tend to see people as members of the Republican Religion or the Democratic Religion. In other countries, we tend to see people merely as members of the conservatives or the liberals/progressives. That has been a convenient way to pigeon-hole or label individuals for a long time. But, maybe that is changing? The Brexit election in England last year was the first…
In the 1963 movie of Bye Bye Birdie, there was this wonderful song that begged the question of “what’s the matter with kids today?” It quickly became a standard refrain asked by grown-ups who are confused by non-grown-ups. I have heard that particular question asked all my life. I know, kids watch too much television and are more interested in their cell phones than their…
It is difficult to complain about something you love and adore, but capitalism has failed us in the pharmaceuticals market. Republicans reflexively allege this failure is due to too much government influence, while Democrats focus on who should pay for this failure. I am one of the lucky ones. The Veterans Administration provides my medications at a nominal cost. They are permitted, unlike Medicare, to…
Along the lines of which of “the chicken or the egg,” does partisan identity precede or follow economic identity? Are all Keynesian economists Democrats? Are all Democrats also Keynesians? Are all Austrian-school economists establishment Republicans? Are all establishment Republicans Austrian. Are all Supply-side economists closet Tea Party members? Of course, the key word is “all.” There are exceptions to each of those broadly-true generalizations but…
There are thorny problems, and then there is the problem of North Korea, which has enough thorns to be an entire briar patch. The basics are that a young, irrational leader of an small nation who has been tutored to think he can be important to the world only by threatening the U.S. with nuclear weapons, that his country cannot afford. In reality, he is…
In 1949, Robert Merton wrote a book entitled Social Theory and Social Structure. In it, he coined the expression of “self-fulling prophecy”, which is a prophecy, even a false one, that is made true by the actions of people. For example, the value of a stock reflects supply and demand for that stock. If Warren Buffett predicted that a certain stock was going up, other…
My quarterly column for Inside Business can be found here: http://pilotonline.com/inside-business/news/columns/first-quarter-news-on-economy-stocks-and-impeachment-expert-column/article_901175b6-8dc1-5e88-8b91-88b207fca6e4.html
Stocks are drifting downward. Gold is drifting upward. Bond yields are trending lower, as investors seeks to reduce risk. Why? Is it just a general sense of unease? Is it fear of another Syria-type military action? Is it President Trump? If you look at the price of credit insurance on debt of Korea, you will see it is spiking much higher. All those hedge funds…
I have written many times that gerrymandering is a cancer on our body politic. Originally developed by Democrats, Republicans have now become addicted to it. It is good for nobody, least of all the voters. An excellent tongue-in-check explanation of it can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-4dIImaodQ If you are offended by profanity and off-color humor, you should NOT watch it.
While Wall Street is focused on geopolitical affairs, the Fed is debating something else that deserves more attention — whether or not to decrease the Fed’s balance sheet. The Libertarian wing of the Republican Party has been highly critical of the Fed for this and insistent that the Fed “deleverage” or sell bonds off its balance sheet. During the long, slow recovery from the Global…
The conventional wisdom about the impact of impeachment on the stock market is that it will be temporary. After all, the stock market rose 226% during the presidency of Bill Clinton. My experience tells me the market will sink . . . until it is clear that the President will not be removed from office, as it is impossible to get a two-thirds majority. Fortunately…
I actually enjoy flying on airplanes but hate being in airports, where passengers are stripped of their individuality, forced to draw-between-the-lines, and to follow precise instructions exactly — or else. Unfortunately there is now another innovation to make air travel even more miserable. John McCain once said the worst part of being in a POW camp was being forced to listen to propaganda, which is…