The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

A View from Philly

04/08/2020

My favorite investment pundit has long been Dr Jeremy Siegel of Wharton.  He assumes (1) the pandemic will be over by year-end, (2) that there will be massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, (3) that the coronavirus curve will be flattened, (4) that a vaccine will be developed and made available, and (5) that reliable contact tracing technology will be developed quickly.  Based on that, he predicts a strong V-shaped recovery early next year.  Most economists do not see a V-shaped recovery.  But, with these five pre-conditions happening quickly, it might be possible to recover quickly.  Of course, Dr Siegel has long been called a “perma-bull.”

By the way, there will be significant push-back to contact tracing technology from privacy advocates.  What could possibly go wrong once the government can identify every person you pass?  (Think 1984!)  Would you stop going to Lowe’s or Target unless you knew every person had their temperature taken?  If you had taken the vaccine, would you even care?

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