The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

Happy 2018 ?

11/19/2017

There is a difference between trust and respect.  For example, I have no trust for the giant investment house of Goldman Sachs but have great respect for them, especially their research.

Their latest forecast is (1) that the stock market should be as strong in 2018 as in 2017 and (2) that, if Trump doesn’t get a “win” on tax reform, he will be too politically weakened to renegotiate NAFTA.

With respect to 2018, they note that worldwide economic growth continues to improve and that monetary policy remains very easy worldwide.  The biggest threat to this forecast remains policy errors, like a trade war.

With respect to Trump renegotiating NAFTA, they argue that he will have lost political strength, if he goes a full year without any legislative proof that he really can do anything to make America great again.  While NAFTA is a good thing, it does need to be updated, although President Trump might not be the right person to update it. 

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