The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

Is It Party-Time Yet ??

08/03/2010

For July, the markets were up about 7%. Yesterday, on the first trading day of the month, the markets were up another 2%. While that is always pleasant, longtime readers will recall I expect we should trade in a band between 1050 and 1150 on the S&P for most of the year, but with real bullish momentum at year-end. The S&P is now 1125, approaching the upper limit of the trading band. I don’t expect this strength to hold. The consumer is still moribund. This morning, even consumer staple giant, Proctor & Gamble, reported disappointing revenue numbers. The one mistake market strategists like myself keep making is forgetting that it takes awhile to de-leverage or reduce debt, which is required for consumers to become aggressive buyers again. There will be no double-dip recession. Unfortunately, there will be no quick recovery either. It is a long, sloppy recovery. So, put the party hats and balloons back in the closet . . . darn it!

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