The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Totally Unscientific . . .

One of the daily jobs of a financial advisor is to check on stocks that have been either up-graded or down-graded by the nerdy analysts.

Normally, there are more downgrades than upgrades when the economy is weakening, but that is definitely not the case now. I’m seeing probably 5 upgrades for every downgrade, which indicates a strengthening economy, at the same time that economic data indicates the opposite.

Maybe, it is just another reflection of the difference between The Market and The Economy. Or, maybe it is that the nerdy analysts are forward-looking, while economic data is backward-looking.

Even though the Dow just closed under 10,000 points for a seven-week-low, the sky is not falling. The Market is normally listless and meaningless in August, with less than a billion shares traded today. I’m far more concerned about September and early October. However, by late October or November, levels of uncertainty will be less, and stocks reflect that by rising, normally!

Like I said . . . totally unscientific!