The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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What, No Apocalypse ?

Despite being famously called “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money,” I nonetheless do respect and appreciate Goldman Sachs . . . well, their research department anyway!

Their latest predictions are interesting.  While their narrative seems somewhat sanguine, their conclusions are not.  They still expect the S&P 500 to end the year at 2,100.  In fact, they see stock markets worldwide to be positive for 2016, especially Japan.  They see long-term interest rates increasing 73 basis points in the U.S. this year (I don’t!)  The dollar will continue to strengthen against the euro and the pound, but not yen.  Most importantly, they see oil rising $54/bbl over the next twelve months, while gold remains dead within a narrow trading range.

Like the dog that didn’t bark, there is no mention of a recession or financial collapse in the foreseeable future.