The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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YTD Snapshots

From time to time, it is useful to look for underlying trends in the market.  Looking at the YTD data through May 31st, it would be hard to miss the impact of two trends, i.e., a possible trade war and the increase in interest rates.

The large multinational companies would be more impacted by a trade war than smaller companies.  To prove the point, large cap stocks were up 2.2%, while small cap stocks were up 8.17%.

When interest rates rise, investors wait for the higher rates and slow down their purchases of those stocks that are normally bought for the stable dividend income.  To prove the point, S&P growth stocks were up 6.62%, while value (dividend-paying) stocks were down 2.84%.

To further prove the point, technology stocks (which pay little or no dividends) were up 11.26%, while consumer staples and telecoms (which usually pay handsome dividends) were down a whopping 12.49% and 10.48%, respectively.

There is no obvious impact from the Mueller-malaise hanging over Washington.  As the November elections approach, I expect uncertainty to increase, which is a weight on the market, but I expect a robust “Santa Claus” rally late this year.