The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

The opinions expressed in The Flinchum File are those of the writer, Jim Flinchum, and do not necessarily reflect those of Bay Capital Advisors, LLC

Vulnerable

There are seventeen little-known but terribly important minerals known as “rare earth minerals,” which are used for jet engines, missile guidance systems, electric car batteries, antimissile defense systems, satellites, cell phones, lasers, etc.  81% of all rare earth minerals are mined in China, and there is rising concern that China would use our dependence on them as a negotiating tool.  Our defense department consumes 9%…

Like A Baby

Memorial Day is the most meaningful holiday of the year . . . but I hate it, because it is the only day of the year that I always cry. Yes, it is a colorful day, with red, white, and blue flags and balloons.  Politicians preening for votes behind red, white, and blue bunting.  Hopefully, they will remind us that America is more than an…

The Conceit of Choice

Carl Richards is a long-time financial planner and my favorite columnist for The New York Times.  (Truth-in-blogging:  I took his course on behavioral finance a few years ago and have been a fan ever since.)  In his latest book, he shares an interesting personal story, which I quote: Take my recent experience with my dog, Zeke.  He was having some stomach problems (I’ll spare your the…

One-Handed Clap

Kudo, Mr. President! There are two types of immigration:  legal and illegal.  Looking at legal immigration, there are two main categories.  One is family reunification, accounting for 66% of legal immigrants, and the other is “merit-based”, accounting for 12%.  The President has proposed the “merit-based” allocation be increased to 57% of legal immigrants, while reducing family reunification to 33%. As usual, the devil is hiding…

Not-Ready-For-Prime-Time

In 19th century England, textile workers were threatened by the development of new automated textile equipment.  They rioted several times and destroyed many of the new machines.  They were called Luddites, which has come to mean anybody who is distrustful of new technology.  With respect to technology, there seems to be only two opinions – (1) technology is wonderful and each development must be hailed…

“The Big Four”

Carolyn McClanahan is both a medical doctor and a CFP(r) Professional.  I first met her at a NAPFA (National Association of Personal Financial Advisors) convention some years ago and have been a fan ever since.  She recently wrote about the importance of planners helping clients make “The Big Four” decisions. The first decision is when will a client move, into an eldercare facility or a…

An Expected Slowdown – No Big Deal

The first quarter (Q1) of GDP was surprisingly strong at 3.2%.  This was higher than expected, due to two things.  One, imports dropped considerably, showing the impact of tariffs.  Two, inventories increased more than expected, also reflecting the build-up before tariffs took effect.  Only one person thought that growth rate was sustainable. The early second quarter (Q2) data is substantially weaker.  Retail sales and factory…

Divided Loyalties ?

Recently, I attended a lecture by Raghuram Rajan, formerly chief economist of the IMF and the central banker of India and currently at the University of Chicago.  He spoke about his new book The Third Pillar, which argues a strong, long-lasting nation needs three pillars.  The first is efficient, effective government, along with a growing, prosperous business pillar, the second pillar.  The third pillar is…

Who’s the Client ?

As we sit here, waiting for the next school shooting, it might be useful to consider the NRA’s deepest fear – allegedly – which is that the slippery-slope of responsible gun ownership leads to total confiscation of our weapons by “the” government.  Okay, let’s suppose that’s true and that gun ownership is outlawed. There are already 360 million guns in America for 340 million Americans. …

The Price of Truth

Larry Kudlow is my favorite Supply-side economist.  A long-time CNBC contributor, he is a gentleman, in the finest sense of the word.  He is a master at disagreeing agreeably.  I like him and respect him! Today, he is the President’s principle economic advisor and must help advance the President’s economic agenda.  Last weekend, he admitted that tariffs are just additional taxes on the consumers.  To…

The Approach of Doom ????

As I write this, the Dow is down about 700 points.  One of my favorite market sages pointed out this morning that “we’re only one tweet away from a new high!”  Yes, the market is just that volatile now and could turn around quickly (which means it is dangerous to short anything).  Obviously, the market is “freaked-out” about the China negotiations or lack thereof. Are…

A Really Expensive Good Idea

Efficiency is a good thing, right? Is increased efficiency a good thing?  Depends on the price, of course. Blockchain is a digital platform where buyers and sellers can separately enter information, confirming each other’s info.  It will increase efficiency and reduce accounting costs, especially with international trade finance.  Therefore, “good guys” like it.  It is also a distributed ledger of all transactions, which cannot be…

Three Brainy Thoughts

There were three interesting takeaways from my recent class on brain health.  One was, if a person is very concerned about approaching brain disease such as dementia, make sure they have completed their financial and estate plan BEFORE getting the medical diagnosis.  If they do have onset of brain disease, they may lack the ability and will certainly lack the confidence to complete their financial…

Existential Economics

I have been a financial planner since dinosaurs roamed the land.  Okay, maybe not that long, but I have watched the evolution of financial planning for a very long time.  In the early years, our focus was on rationalizing or making sense of a person’s financial assets and coordinating that with their estate plan. With the death of pensions, our focus became retirement planning.  No…

Save NAFTA II

Back in 1972, I worked through the math supporting the economic Law of Comparative Advantage, which explained how globalization increased GDP, and I have been a “globalist” ever since, even now when it is an unpopular position.  In fact, most economists are still globalists, even if they won’t currently admit to it.  But the globalization we have witnessed since the mid-1990’s is not our first…

Debt Ceiling

In case you missed it, my last quarterly column for Inside Business argues that the debt ceiling does more harm than good. The column can be found at: https://pilotonline.com/inside-business/news/columns/article_fecaf2c0-5ace-11e9-a648-33d438ae14b0.html