We recently noted the unusual under-performance of small-cap stocks, which were getting trounced by large-cap stocks this Spring. Now, we look at the two ISM Indexes and see continued growth in the services sector, as well as employment, but a sudden slowdown in manufacturing. It is still increasing but only barely. Obviously, the new tariffs are one cause, and other causes are not readily apparent. Continued labor shortages is probably a minor contributing factor.
My suspicion is that this may be the first hard evidence of tariffs causing a U.S. slowdown. I hope it is the last . . . but doubt it!