The Flinchum File
Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions

Anomaly #2

06/06/2019

We recently noted the unusual under-performance of small-cap stocks, which were getting trounced by large-cap stocks this Spring.  Now, we look at the two ISM Indexes and see continued growth in the services sector, as well as employment, but a sudden slowdown in manufacturing.  It is still increasing but only barely.  Obviously, the new tariffs are one cause, and other causes are not readily apparent.  Continued labor shortages is probably a minor contributing factor.

My suspicion is that this may be the first hard evidence of tariffs causing a U.S. slowdown.  I hope it is the last . . . but doubt it!

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