Like most people, I remember when President Kennedy was shot. It was a terrible tragedy, indeed! But, America grieved, pulled itself together, and continued to be America. I also remember when America cared about “who shot JR?” It was a manufactured media event and made the word “media-hype” commonplace. Shooting the President was horrible, while shooting JR was a simple marketing ploy by advertisers of…
It was a cold February morning in 1968 that I jumped out of a perfectly good airplane. As an officer, I had to be the first one to jump out, ostensibly to show my men I was not afraid. Of course, that was not true. I was very afraid, but I was completely resolute to do my job — no matter what! Standing alone in…
In 1946, Dr. Benjamin Spock published his classic book on child-rearing and raised my generation. In 1969, Jim Henson came on the television with his classic show Sesame Street and raised my daughter’s generation. One of the most annoying characters on that show was Count von Count, who insisted on counting everything and then telling everybody about it. Examples would be bricks in a wall or…
At the end of another long, exhausting year and facing yet another cold, dark winter, it is not surprising that the first type of clinical depression cataloged by psychologists was seasonal depression, occurring this time every year. Different societies have long recognized the extra need for merriment at this time of year. So . . . To my Christian friends . . . .…
What is the most powerful business or industry in this country? No, it is not the defense industry, even though it can blow everything into tiny pieces whenever it likes. No, it is not the political business, even though it can destroy everything we love and cherish. No, it is not the religion business, even though it can send us on a lifetime of guilt…
In our rush to fall over the Fiscal Cliff, I took a wrong turn onto Memory Lane and ran into the classic 1991 video by Chris Isaak called “Wicked Game” — where he was so blissfully serene about falling . . . in love . . . if not into recession, like us? If the temporary state of falling is so blissful, America could use…
If a picture is worth a thousand words, how much is a cartoon worth? Take a look at this one, which has more humor than truth: It shows Fed Head Ben Bernanke shoveling a huge pile of existing cash into a fire, where it is destroyed forever. It makes the point that the average American is unaware the problem is increasing, just as a frog…
As a boy, I remember my parents fretting over whatever I was reading — fearful I suppose that I would read something that would send me careening down that “broad and well-traveled road.” Yet, there was no shortage of reading materials that “all is lost,” and America is lost! There were relentless parallels between the fall of Rome and the fall of Washington. About twenty…
The stock market is more than computers and concepts. It is a living, breathing source of energy and wealth. I never tire of studying of it. It is a rare occasion indeed when I watch anything other than CNBC or Bloomberg. Yesterday was one of those days. Watching the horror of Newtown was gripping. So much pain and so much heartbreak and so utterly senseless!…
When he was running for the Democratic nomination in 2008, President Obama said he wanted to be a “transformational President” like Reagan, i.e., one who changes the trajectory of history. I hope he still wants that, because he now has the opportunity. It is now clear that taxes will increase for both the successful and the lucky, but that is what is expected from Democrats.…
When I was studying at Wharton, my favorite professor was Dr. Jeremy Siegel, author of The Future for Investors, and I have followed him closely ever since. In his latest commentary, he thinks that, while there are problems with the latest Jobs Report, it is clear that the economy continues to improve. More interestingly, he believes the odds of resolving the Fiscal Cliff before December…
Maybe, you remember where you were . . . when Kennedy was assassinated. Of course, you must also remember where you were . . . when you learned who shot J.R. But, where were you four years ago today . . . when we learned about Bernie Madoff? (It’s hard to believe it has already been four years.) It was actually three months later…
The public is focused on the unknown of whether we will or will not go over the Fiscal Cliff. Of course, nobody knows the answer with certainty. What is known is this: My taxes are increasing. What is NOT known is this: What spending will decrease? The President has always advocated for a “balanced solution” to the deficit and national debt, which means BOTH tax…
Economics is like a beautiful woman: just enough science to be satisfying and just enough art to be mystifying. I’ve been chasing her and courting her all my life! Politics is her older, ugly sister, who talks constantly and is married to a rich know-it-all. She’s been chasing all of us. And, she is getting faster! The first Friday of each month should be a…
Kent Woodward is a good friend and a strong, independent thinker. He was kind enough to write today’s blog! It examines a simple but elegant way to enjoy the benefit of unionization, i.e., higher wages, without the inherent inefficiencies of union regulations. It must be a good idea, because it would irritate both political parties! Enjoy . . . “Yesterday’s New York Times carried an…
Like country music, I was Supply-side before Supply-side was cool! You’ll recall Supply-side economics argues that, at some point, income tax rates can become so high that it hurts the economy and actually reduces the revenue received by the government. (Of course, there is plenty of argument about where that point is.) I taught the first class on Supply-side economics for the American Institute of…
Because so many decisions are made emotionally, true financial planning has to work with those emotions for clients. Even as a male financial planner, it is often difficult to work with male clients during certain times. Despite an avalanche of books on the subject of the differences between men and women, I’m reading Resilient Widowers by Alinde Moore and Dorothy Stratton. It argues that men and…
I’ve believed the underlying U.S. economy is stronger than most people expect but is weighted down by our politicians. Last Thursday, we learned that GDP growth in the third quarter of this year was revised higher from 2.0% to a surprisingly strong 2.7%. In fact, it was double the growth rate in the second quarter, which was 1.3%. If growth had doubled, I would have…
Obviously, there is a difference between careful, structured thoughts, which I prefer, and mere anecdotal observations, which I try to avoid. Still, at a large public function last night, I was struck by the intense anger I observed over the Fiscal Cliff . . . not fear but anger! Although I yield to no one in my disgust for the elected partisans in Washington, who…
Factoid-of-the-Day: Averaging $161,579 per taxpayer — the most recent IRS data shows that the top 5% of income earners enjoyed 37.4% of all “adjusted gross income” but paid 59.1% of total Federal income taxes in 2010. Political types take that as proof-positive that the highest marginal tax rates need to be reduced, and then they’re off-and-running. Economic types take that as just another interesting data-point.…
Despite all the coverage of America’s Fiscal Cliff, the most intransigent obstacle to America’s stock market recovery is the continuing drama in Europe. Of the 27 member states, most realize that Greece needs help — badly. The nation most opposed to helping is Germany (along with Finland & Denmark). In fact, even the IMF has had harsh words for German obstructionism in the last week.…
. . . for the gift of living in a great country, which it still is. . . . for the military, which preserves our opportunity to be great. . . . for the constitutional right of privacy, if there is any left. . . . for freedom of religion, if not freedom from religion. . . . for the economic system of capitalism, despite its often…
Not all relationships have meaning. For example, take a look at this chart: It shows the Dow divided by the price of gold and suggests two possibilities: Either the stock market is too low or the price of gold is too high. Which is it? At first blush, you might say the great uncertainty we’re experiencing is scaring investors out of the stock market and…
How do you know if your investment manager is doing a good job? Large institutional investors assign their investment manager with a benchmark and then compare investment performance with the benchmark. (The S&P 500 is the most common benchmark.) The latest study shows that four out five managers failed this test both last year and this year. So, how do you measure your investment manager?…
The uncertainty of the election is gone. You may not like the outcome, but removing uncertainty is always a good thing for the stock market. But wait! The markets are now obsessing over the Fiscal Cliff — with endless nuanced arguments both ways. Again, getting it behind us is more important to the stock market than the details. Pundits seem to think there is a…
I have only the highest respect and appreciation for America’s combat veterans! They truly put everything on the line, asking for so little in return. Despite technically being an all-volunteer military, many soldiers find themselves in combat involuntarily, as their units were transferred before they could get out. Some are there because they are true patriots, trying to save Motherhood and the Flag. Some are…
I was lost in my thoughts while running yesterday, when I suddenly realized that I had stopped dead-in-my-tracks. I found myself simply standing there, because I had just realized that the negotiations over the Fiscal Cliff have already proceeded farther than they did last year — in only three days and without Obama & Boehner even meeting face-to-face. Anybody who has ever been involved in…
I keep thinking about my classes on longevity, and there are a few unrelated things that seem to resonate more than others. For example, life expectancy rises with both education and income. Perhaps, the reasons are obvious, but since those people are more likely to have a financial advisor, then the average life expectancy of our clients is longer than that of the general population.…
The last day of my investment conference this week was unusual — we studied the problems of longevity. When I was certified decades ago, it was considered prudent to estimate 7% annual income from a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds. That’s means a person with a $100 thousand portfolio can reasonably assume an income of $7,000 annually to live on. If that was not…
Financial advisors tend to be a cynical, hard-bitten group. They strain to merely applaud and seem to be genetically incapable of wild adulation. So, it was surprising yesterday when our luncheon speaker was introduced. He was Jack Bogle, founder of the Vanguard funds. Even after 83 years of accomplishment, even he was surprised at the loud applause and standing ovation from 200 “know-it-alls” like myself.…
Yesterday, the market stopped obsessing over the election and suddenly realized the wet blanket of the Fiscal Cliff and the wet blanket of the European financial crisis were both wetter and heavier than expected. The Dow lost over 300 points. But, there was also a hopeful development in negotiations over the Fiscal Cliff yesterday. The Republican position has been that there is a spending problem,…
One of our speakers today was the biographer of Warren Buffett, and she had some interesting anecdotes; one personal and two business. On a personal note, she asked him what was the personal characteristic that made him so successful, and he responded with one word — “focus.” She looked around his large corner office and noticed the heavy, wooden shutters were all closed. The great…
A month or so ago, investment advisors were polled to see who they hoped would win the Presidential election. As I recall, an overwhelming 85% were Romney supporters. I’m attending an investment conference this week in Baltimore, and the mood is dour indeed. However, world stock markets are apparently not so dour. The U.S. was up strongly yesterday, just because it was almost over. Asia…