Initial Jobless Claims have not been this low since 1969. There are actually more job openings than job seekers. The problem is obviously that the job seekers don’t have the skills that employers need. Quietly, behind the scenes, Ivanka Trump has corralled fifteen large employers to pledge in writing to increase skill training, by expanding apprenticeships, increasing OJT, and training new employees. Altogether, the companies signing…
One of my long-time favorite market strategists is Dr. Jeremy Siegel from Wharton. His latest commentary shows his belief that the stock market would jump 10% – if the trade wars would suddenly end. That is consistent with my belief that the market has moved sideways all year, even though corporate earnings continue to rise strongly. The stock market has not kept up with rising…
Wall Street Wags are fretting about the “flat yield curve” but fail to mention that such a yield curve has accurately predicted 14 of the last 7 recessions. First, the yield curve is the difference between interest rates on 2-year Treasury bonds and 10-year Treasury bonds. Longer term rates are higher than short term rates for several reasons. The longer term means more things can…
Many pundits are going crazy, trying to figure out the relationship between Trump and Putin. One even remarked that their relationship is the greatest mystery of this century. Actually, I think the answer can be found with Trump’s shock when he learned that Vice President Pence had never earned more than $200 thousand a year and had only $15 thousand of cash in the bank. …
Sugar man, won’t you hurry‘Cos I’m tired of these scenesFor a blue coin won’t you bring backAll those colors to my dreams Silver magic ships you carryJumpers, coke, sweet Mary Jane Sugar man met a false friendOn a lonely dusty roadLost my heart when I found itIt had turned into a dead black coal Silver magic ships you carryJumpers, coke, sweet Mary Jane Sugar man…
Let’s assume you get a 100% VA mortgage for a new house. Let’s further assume that, ten years later, your mortgage is down to $80 thousand, and your home is now worth $125 thousand. Originally, the loan-to-value of your mortgage was 100%. But, that dropped to a much safer 64% ten years later (80/125). My point is this: there are advantages to inflation. Debt can…
Since my father told me about his experience in World War II, seeing a freshly liberated Nazi concentration camp, I have been very interested in the Holocaust. Recently, I had the opportunity to tour the Richmond Holocaust Museum, which I highly recommend. While I am steeped in the horrible atrocities committed against the Jews, I’ve become interested in the aftermath, after the surviving Jews were…
In your lifetime, how many times have there been more job openings than people looking for jobs? Today, there are 6.6 million unfilled job openings and only 6.0 million people looking for work. More precisely, there are 6.6 million openings for skilled workers and 6.0 million unskilled job applicants. The “skills gap” has never been greater. Another indicator of a tight job market is the…
Few of us maintain our mental sharpness until the end. Mental fuzziness should be a final luxury at the end of life, not open season to be preyed upon. Unfortunately, I just read about yet another Ponzi scheme, stealing $102 million from about 600 seniors in Florida, and I hope there is a special place in Hell for those who prey upon the vulnerable. However,…
Although I seldom do it anymore, I have been a scuba diver for most of my life. In 1975, I had the opportunity to dive a cave off the Suwannee River in the Florida Panhandle. That was enough to convince me that cave diving is vastly more difficult and dangerous than regular open water diving. I learned my lesson and never did it again. Watching…
Q. Do I believe the Russians tried to influence our 2016 elections?A. Yes Q. Do I believe it was authorized by President Putin?A. Yes Q. Do I believe Putin wanted to help candidate Trump?A. It was far more important to Putin that Clinton lost.. Q. Why did Putin hate Clinton so much?A. He believes she tried to interfere with HIS election in 2014. Q. Did…
To read my latest column for Inside Business, go to: https://pilotonline.com/inside-business/news/columns/article_c50ae3fa-8127-11e8-8923-c3ae049e6dfb.html
According to Goldman Sachs, the smartest people on Wall Street work at Goldman Sachs. Indeed, their research department actually deserves that accolade. Their latest analysis suggests commodities will benefit strongly from the stronger dollar. More significantly, they believe there is too much angst over the current trade war, calling such fears “oversold.” I hope they are right! My concern is that we have entered a…
There are economic systems, and there are political systems.Examples of economic systems include capitalism and socialism.Examples of political systems include democracy and dictatorship.Of course, there are degrees of each. The combination of capitalism and democracy is called free enterprise.The combination of socialism and dictatorship is called communism.You can have the combination of capitalism and dictatorship, such as today’s China.You can have the combination of socialism…
I was talking with some fellow students of economics. We started discussing the 0.2% drop in estimates of Q1 GDP growth, but that quickly morphed into a discussion on politics. With a bunch of economic nerds and with a rich assortment of economic datapoints, why were we talking about politics? As we talked through that, it became apparent that, despite the overwhelming majority of the…
Zuckerberg is founder and CEO of tech giant, Facebook. To my knowledge, nobody ever accused him of being a nice guy. Still, he was man enough to recognize the intrusion and interference of Russia into both our 2016 election and 2018 election. In May, he convened a meeting in Menlo Park of executives from all the major tech firms to discuss ways to prevent any…
The opening salvo in this trade war was the immediate rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which I wrote then was a mistake. The Administration looked only at the raw commercial aspect of the TPP, ignoring its wider significance, especially the economic containment of China. It was a clear rejection of geo-politics as part of trade policy. There is no disagreement that it is time…
James Davison Hunter is a brilliant sociologist at the University of Virginia. As he is an excellent but prolific writer, I have barely begun reading everything he has produced. But, my thinking has already started to evolve. There are military wars, and there are culture wars. Military wars are usually caused by tribal conflicts or economic conflicts. Culture wars are more complicated. Because religions have…
Was it a huntsman or a playerThat made you pay the costThat now assumes relaxed positionsAnd prostitutes your loss?Were you tortured by your own thirstIn those pleasures that you seekThat made you Tom the curiousThat makes you James the weak? And you claim you got something goingSomething you call uniqueBut I’ve seen your self-pity showingAs the tears rolled down your cheeks. Soon you know I’ll…
When was the last time you went to: www.usdebtclock.org Go, go look at it now. There are lots of numbers, all rising rapidly. Today, focus on two of them in particular. First, in the upper left, find the national debt, which is now over $21 TRILLION. Second, near the center, find the Gross Domestic Product, which is now over $20 TRILLION. In other words, our…
I hate to sound like a broken record, but . . . the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was up again last month. This traditionally means there is no recession on the 12-18 month time horizon. Our economy being propelled by new manufacturing orders, consumer expectations, stock prices, and capital goods. But, there is an interesting change. The LEI has slowed over the last…
Long ago, when I was living in Texas, I read a short book, whose name is now long lost inside my memory. It speculated on how America would be different if Hitler had won World War II. Not surprisingly, it described a dystopian America as merely a state of the Ayran Nation. There would be no Blacks, no Hispanics, no Asians and no American Indians. …
While it is painful to watch the vulnerable children along our southern border, it is at least visible. Less visible is mistreatment of another vulnerable population, i..e., the elderly. It doesn’t happen to large groups but to one lonely invisible individual after another. But, did you know that you can be fined between $500 and $1,000 if you know of any elder abuse and don’t…
It was in Billings, Montana on May 26th, 2016, when the President promised:“We’re going to win. We’re going to win so much. We’re going to win at trade, we’re going to win at the border. We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning, you’re going to come to me and go ‘Please, please, we can’t win anymore.’…
As 2018 dawned, it looked like we were enjoying synchronized global growth. The U.S. had led the world out of the recession and now looked forward to the increasing growth in Europe and Asia. But that didn’t happen. Instead, the U.S. has gotten stronger, while the others fell further behind. For example, the Chinese central bank cancelled a scheduled increase in interest rates. Capital Investment…
Republicans abuse Supply-side economics, which argues that a tax cut increases the budget deficit in the short run but decreases the deficit in the long run. They are hostage to the baseless belief that all tax cuts are beneficial at all times. Republicans are not aware that a tax cut will not cure the common cold. Democrats abuse Keynesian economics, which argues that budget deficits…
Those old enough to remember the U.S. economy during 1970’s will remember the panicky headlines about runaway inflation. Do you remember the stories about elderly women eating dog food? Do you remember Gerald Ford’s WIN Campaign, which meant Whip Inflation Now? Nobody wishes for a return of that level of inflation again! But, a little inflation is a big blessing, and it looks like we’re…
Traditionally, increases in interest rates in one country draw money from other countries, seeking the higher rate, which causes the currency of the first country to appreciate and the currency of the second country to depreciate. For example, to move funds from Japan to the U.S., you have to sell your Yen to buy dollars, which drives up the value of the dollar, because the…
For far too long, investors have been confused about investment advisors and stockbrokers. Investment Advisors are just that — stockbrokers are just salesmen. Stockbrokers have loyalty to their companies. Investment Advisors have loyalty to their clients. Also, stockbrokers can charge hidden fees. Investment Advisors can NOT! For example, stockbrokers can invest your money into mutual funds that pay “kickbacks” (12b1-1 fees) or send the stockbroker…
I know, I know . . . America is going to pot, and the young Millennials will only make it worse! They’re lazy know-it-alls. They eat healthy but don’t attend church? They even have premarital sex! I know, I know! However, they do see one thing clearly — the vileness from the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. They also clearly see the vileness of…
Most people realize their knowledge is limited when discussing stocks, bonds, and other types of investments. But, everybody thinks they’re an expert on cash, probably because they use it everyday. Our currency says “In God We Trust.” It does NOT say “In Cash We Trust!” There is nothing sacred about cash. It is just another asset class. But, it is an asset class that impacts…
I was visiting with one of my Democratic friends, and she said “Scratch any Republican and they will automatically complain about the lamestream media.” The irony of this is that, she said, since the viewership of Fox News exceeds the viewership of CNN and MSNBC – combined – that Fox is now the lamestream media. She went on to say Republicans laugh at their allegiance…
From time to time, it is useful to look for underlying trends in the market. Looking at the YTD data through May 31st, it would be hard to miss the impact of two trends, i.e., a possible trade war and the increase in interest rates. The large multinational companies would be more impacted by a trade war than smaller companies. To prove the point, large…