The Flinchum File

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The Latest View of Economists

I’ve been a member of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) for years.  One of the benefits is their Industry Survey,which was released this morning. 

Overall, it indicates a slowly improving economy, with the percentage of economists expecting sub-2% GDP growth decreasing from 70% to only 28%.

A year ago, there was considerable concern about deflation.  This year, the majority of economists expect neither deflation nor inflation.  I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a strong belief in price stability before.  (The survey doesn’t discuss the possibility that the pendulum was dropped from deflation and is passing through stability before swinging into inflation again.)

Nearly one-third foresee increasing profit margins, which should be good for the stock market.

Almost none see any significant improvement in jobs.  That’s the bad news!

Most surprising, many economists don’t expect significant damage from the ongoing European debt crisis, and I really pray they are correct.