The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
Subscribe to the Flinchum File
View Archives

We’re Number Three !!

Is the Wall Street bull getting tired?  After all, it has been running for over 2,000 days now.  It has been more than 2,000 days since March 9, 2009 when the Dow touched its low of 666 points.  It is now around 2,000 points after 2,000 days.  (Technically, the 2,000th day was August 30th.)

No, that is not the longest running bull, not even close.  The longest was 4,494 days from December 1987 to March of 2000, when the S&P 500 rose 582%.  The second longest 2,607 days from 1949 to 1956, when the S&P rose 267%.  We’re number three and thankful there is still room to run.  This is NOT unexplored territory.

A few months ago, legendary Goldman Sachs advised its clients to cut back on their allocation to stocks.  They just reversed themselves, suggesting clients should increase or over-weight their allocation to stocks, predicting global stocks (ex-Japan) will rise 3.5% over the next three months and 12% over the next twelve months.  I guess they also expect the bull to keep running.

Just think . . . in another two years, we’ll be NUMBER TWO !!