One of the most sacred responsibilities of combat soldiers is to NEVER leave a buddy behind. There is a certain comfort in knowing that your corpse will be returned to America, helping your loved ones to grieve. Of course, the mission always comes first. As long as the mission is not compromised, do whatever you can to recover your dead and your wounded. Biden’s wise…
For those readers who prefer a fuller description of the economy, they can find my quarterly column for “Inside Business” at: A time to dance? A look at the economy | Expert column – Inside Business (pilotonline.com)
In 1986, three investment analysts named Gary Brinson, Randolph Hood, and Gilbert Beebower (BHB) published their landmark “Determinants of Investment Performance.” It argued that 93.6% of differences in the investment performance of various portfolios was due to asset allocation, i.e., the ratio of the portfolio allocated between stocks and bonds. With 93.6% of the differences explained, a new religion was born. Learned academicians wrote weighty…
When taking Political Science 101 in college during the last century, I learned the two primary political parties housed four types of politicians. There were conservative Republicans and liberal Republicans. Likewise, there were conservative Democrats and liberal Democrats. The beauty of such an arrangement was that most everything was bipartisan. Conservative Republicans could team up with conservative Democrats to create bipartisan laws. Likewise, liberal Republicans…
One of the joys of summer is catching up on your reading. I just completed “The Arsenal of Democracy,” an under-appreciated 2014 narrative of World War II by A.J. Baime. It is highly recommended for students of history, as well as students of dysfunctional families. For students of history, accustomed to war stories of blood & guts, this book instead traces the “battle of production”…
One of my favorite philosophers has always been Jean-Jacques Rousseau, a leading Swiss philosopher who died in 1778. (I actually visited his grave in Geneva in 1992.) He is best known for the Social Contract, published in 1762, reasoning that people are little more than a product of their environment. The notion is that kids from good parents of affluent means in a wealthy zip…
Having spent many years in Texas, I am familiar with Juneteenth and the deep emotions it arouses. Now, we have a national holiday to remember that day, when word of the Emancipation Proclamation reached Galveston, freeing the enslaved Americans. Now, start remembering . . . !! First, there is a cost to national holidays. Whatever the value of all those government workers doing a day’s…
You know the world is upside-down when Fox News agrees with Bill Maher. He is a longtime comedy star on HBO, better known for his blistering takedowns of conservatives. This week, they applauded Maher’s rant that liberal Democrats and/or Progressives don’t know how to “high-five” and take a victory lap. Maher called it “progressophobia”, which is a “brain disorder that strikes liberals and makes them…
“Inflation Jumps to 13-year High” blared the front-page headline on The Wall Street Journal. Although alarmist, it is something Wall Street is paying close attention to . . . or is it? According the Monetarist school of economics, inflation results when you have too much money chasing too few goods. Alternatively, goods available for sale will absorb the money available to buy them, generally speaking. Our…
During my school years, math and science were important to me. I appreciated the clarity of thinking and crispness of conclusions. It was science or “hard” power! English and government were also important to me. I appreciated the wide, leisurely thinking, complete with fuzzy nuances. It was art or “soft” power! However, Latin and French just sucked! There were no new concepts nor original thinking. …
Christmas is nice. So is Hanukkah. And Kwanza too! My favorite of the religiously-inspired holidays has always been Easter, with its Spring-like weather, with its hope of renewal, and with its prayer of “rising from the dead.” Among the nationally-inspired holidays, like Thanksgiving, President’s Day, and other shopping days, I feel more emotional about Memorial Day than all the rest. Unlike Veterans Day, which theoretically…
In the seventeenth century, the Dutch Republic was arguably the most prosperous nation in the world and certainly was the financial center of the world. It even developed the first Futures Market, which gives investors the right to buy or sell a certain commodity, such as bushels of corn or wheat, at a certain price on a future date. Unfortunately, the Futures Market included the…
We know the rules. One, you must never say the “N-word.” Likewise, you must never say the “F-word.” Now, according to Barron’s magazine, it is impolite to use the “I-word” in polite company. Right now, the stock market is over-reacting to INFLATION . . . there, I said the I-word! Phase One of this over-reaction was that the Fed doesn’t realize inflation is increasing. Currently,…
Because Afghanistan is “where empires go to to die”, most Americans are relieved that we are finally withdrawing . . . myself among them. Twenty years is long enough. The United States has many great strengths, but nation-building is not one of them. Remember Somalia? In 2019, the average age in the U.S. was 38.4 years, the highest ever. The Israeli nation-building experiment began in 1948,…
Yes, it was hot and muddy . . . Waterfront Law Team Participates in Little Neck Creek, Virginia Cleanup (waterfrontpropertylaw.com) . . . but it is always fun to do good! Special thanks to Jim Lang of the Waterfront Law Team at the law firm of Pender & Coward in the Town Center of Virginia Beach for making this opportunity available!
There are disadvantages to remembering the 1970’s, which was a time of high inflation. The disadvantage is that you see a return to high inflation behind every bush. Currently, the stock market is over-reacting to the fear of higher inflation, which is tougher on lower-income people, not that the stock market cares about lower income people, but the market knows high inflation will bring higher…
While reading “the classics” is never a bad idea, most people read newer books. However, a middle-age book can also give a refreshing perspective. I just finished Lethal Passage: The Story of a Gun, written by Erik Larson and published in 1995. It was recommended to me by a good British friend who struggles to understand the love affair that Americans have with guns. In…
A Republican neighbor is currently very upset that public schools may start teaching “Critical Race Theory” (CRT), which argues that white supremacy is tightly maintained and supported by America’s legal structure. While I respect her fear, this is not news. It’s been almost twenty years, since I was required to attend a half-day class on “The 800-lb Gorilla” in Washington, D.C. Although I didn’t know…
In January, most economists expected GDP to lift-off in the first quarter, spike in the second quarter, before leveling off the rest of the year. First quarter GDP growth was expected to be about 4-5%, spiking to 7-8% in the second quarter, with full year average of 5-6%. Last week, we learned that Q1 GDP growth was 6.4% — stronger than expected. Maybe, that number…
As the son of a World War II veteran, I was force-fed a steady diet of war stories from birth. I knew which countries were on which side and why. I knew the various campaigns and their outcome. I learned that there was no one war, and there was a lot of ethnic-score-settling masquerading as a single war. Most interesting to me was that the…
According to Webster’s, a “bad apple” is “a member of a group whose behavior reflects poorly on or negatively affects or influences the remainder of the group.” Of course, the best way to deal with a bad apple is to separate it from the others, before it rots the whole bushel. In the Army years ago, we dealt with bad apples by giving him a…
Sometimes, what you fear is what you need! Today, our national debt is $28.2 trillion and will certainly exceed $30 trillion by yearend. That is over $225 thousand of debt per taxpayer. Economists have traditionally said the “breaking point” is when our national debt exceeds our national income. Today, our debt exceeds our national income by 30% Is this a problem? Not if you believe…
Most people remember the Great Recession of 2008/9 as a real estate bubble that burst. That’s not wrong, but it doesn’t tell enough of the story. The bubble that burst was the mortgage market, not real estate, and it nearly took down the world’s greatest financial system. Today, there is understandable concern that we are experiencing yet another bubble. A tsunami of liquidity must produce…
In Vietnam, we promised American sympathizers (Montagnards) that we would protect them . . . and then we left. In Iraq/Syria, we promised American sympathizers (Kurds) that we would protect them . . . and then we left. In Afghanistan, we promised American sympathizers that we would also protect them . . . and then we left. Winston Churchill said “Americans can always be counted…
Most people with lots of gray hair can remember the 1970’s, when inflation was out-of-control, often exceeding 10%. To stop it, the Fed intentionally caused a recession, to decrease demand for goods and services. It was the first and the last intentional recession, and it worked, crushing inflation. However, for those who lived it, there will forever be a mental link between inflation and recession. …
For many years, I have written a quarterly column for Inside Business, which is part of The Virginian-Pilot newspaper that dominates the Hampton Roads area of Virginia. My latest column can be found here: SPACs, NFTs, TINA and raiders: A review of the first quarter – Inside Business (pilotonline.com)
In January of 2009, I was attending a conference in the elegant old Boca Raton Resort & Club. During a quiet breakfast alone, a small elderly couple sat down at the next table. As his hearing was poor, their conversation was loud enough to hear. Although trying not to listen, I learned they had been victims of Bernie Madoff’s massive Ponzi scheme, which was discovered…
Long ago, when I still believed that all men were created equal (women too!), I regarded Great Britain’s royal family as arguably the most over-pampered, over-privileged, over-paid, under-educated and useless family on the planet. I was wrong – very wrong . . . and apologize! I have marveled at the calming influence that the Queen’s speeches have had on both Britain and America. I admire…
Oddly, my time in the Army Special Forces made me an existentialist. We were taught and practiced how to survive off-the-land. We learned that civilization was merely a convenience, not a necessity. We could move north or south, during daylight or darkness, as a “friendly” or as a “hostile.” I didn’t appreciate how much it changed me until I left the Army, when I realized…
With respect to the President’s infrastructure plan, neither my Republican friends nor my Democratic friends can even agree on which things they actually agree on – situation normal – channeling the Gingrich distinction between governing and winning . . . winning wins. I do part company with my Democratic friends on this issue. Of course, I laughed when I read the Democratic proposal to fund…
Economists are fond of discussing “opportunity costs” or the costs of NOT doing something. The classic example is that the cost of a new aircraft carrier is NOT a billion dollars. The cost of a new aircraft carrier is two unbuilt hospitals and three unbuilt nursing homes, as an example. We tend to look at the cost of the pandemic in terms of dollars spent. …
I have long argued there is an important distinction between a recession and a financial crisis. Recessions come-and-go, usually fixing themselves, before scaling new heights afterwards. On the other hand, a financial crisis can happen quickly, do more damage, and need government assistance. A financial crisis is much worse than a recession and requires eternal vigilance. For the past week, Wall Street has been rattled…
The sixth of the Ten Commandments is “You shall not murder.” However, ancient Hebrew texts clearly make a distinction between murder and killing. Murder involves “bloodguilt,” because it is unlawful. Killing is not murder, when done legally, such as combat or home invasion. My native state of Virginia has just adopted the Sixth Commandment, which eliminates the death penalty. In effect, both murder and killing…