I actually enjoy flying on airplanes but hate being in airports, where passengers are stripped of their individuality, forced to draw-between-the-lines, and to follow precise instructions exactly — or else. Unfortunately there is now another innovation to make air travel even more miserable. John McCain once said the worst part of being in a POW camp was being forced to listen to propaganda, which is…
One rainy morning in 1981, I was in a well-lighted conference room on a high floor of Citicorp Center in Manhattan. The weather was so bad that we could not see the streets below. Into the room walked Congressman St. Germain of Rhode Island. For an hour, he explained the problem with bankers is that they thought their job was to allocate credit in the…
Just as no person is perfect, no political party is perfect. The Democrats are wrong about interstate health insurance, and the Republicans are wrong about privacy. Allowing internet providers to sell information on users, including browsing history and Social Security numbers is just WRONG! It is morally repugnant!!
Bob Doll of Nuveen is one of my favorite “thought-leaders.” After a 1.4% fall in the stock market last week, I was looking forward to his thoughts. Obviously, he thinks the President’s disappointment with the Obamacare replacement makes it more difficult to get badly-needed legislation on the tax code revisions and rebuilding infrastructure. The much-heralded “Trump Bump” is dependent on the three pillars of healthcare…
There has been some interesting criticism of the “Unthinkable” blog last week. It was NOT a call for the impeachment of President Trump. Quite the contrary, I stated impeachment was indeed bad for the country. But, I predicted it would happen nonetheless, reflecting the poisonous partisanship, the massive egos in Washington, and the lack of a clear definition of “High Crimes.” My objective was to…
Years ago, I ran the Rattlesnake Roundup 10K in Sweetwater, Texas. All along the road, rattlesnakes were positioned on one side or the other. Fortunately, each was tended by a “snake-charmer” who had a long tool to control the rattlesnake. At the beginning of the race, the announcer gave us some advice I never forgot: “If you must step on a rattlesnake, step on its…
The latest “Happiness” survey listed Norway as the happiest nation on Earth. It may be just a happy coincidence that Norway also has the highest financial literacy, compared to the U.S., which was 14th, just behind the Czech Republic. So, should high school students be required to take a financial literacy course? I doubt anybody would object to increasing financial literacy before students enter the…
Q. When is it time to start thinking about the unthinkable?A. When you find yourself awake at night, staring at the dark ceiling, and worrying. Q. Will the President be impeached? If so, for what impeachable offense?A. Yes, but the offense doesn’t really matter at this point. “High crimes” can include most anything. Impeachment is not about right or wrong. It is about power. Q.…
Wall Street, politicians, and the media pay very close attention to the monthly “Jobs Report” on the first Monday of each month. Announcing the rate of unemployment, it is the “headline news” on the labor market. On the other hand, economists pay closer attention to the JOLT report, which stands for Job-Openings, Labor-Turnover. An increasing number of job openings is always a good thing, of…
Do you remember the mixed emotions when your kid graduated from high school? There was pride that they had accomplished something worth doing. There was relief that your efforts to get them functioning in the real world had some measurable success. There was excitement that they would now be standing on their own two feet, facing their own challenges. That’s how I feel about the…
Bobby Doll is the Chief Equity Analyst for giant Nuveen Asset Management and has long been one of my favorite thought-leaders. An affable, humble man with an ability to write succinctly, he remains confident in both the economy and the stock market. However, his most recent commentary lists five risks we should pay attention to, and they are quoted as follows: 1. U.S. Politics: Despite…
Easily, the most readable book on economics in this young century is Freakonomics by Levitt and Dubner. There is also a Freakonomics podcast (which is available in the App Store). I often listen to one of those podcasts when running. A recent one concerned the Libertarian political party, complete with an interview by Gary Johnson, who ran on the 2016 ticket and garnered a slightly surprising 3.2%.…
During the Era of Gridlock, the United States was a one-armed boxer. Gridlock made fiscal policy useless, as Congress was unable to do anything that mattered. All we had was monetary policy, which is controlled by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, Wall Street held its breath every time the Fed met to decide any changes. If the Fed did anything unexpected, Wall Street invariably over-reacted. Next…
I would like a tax cut.Who doesn’t want more spending money in their pocket? I would like Obamacare replaced with something “better,” as the President promised.Who doesn’t want better health care? I would like a stronger military forces.Who doesn’t want stronger defense? I would like a modern infrastructure.Who doesn’t want better roads, bridges, port, airports, etc? That’s a nice wish list that collides with the…
During the past week, did you observe and absorb the following economic data points? 1. On Monday, we learned home prices increased 5.8% last year, with 0.8% coming in December. The Pacific Northwest led the way. On Wednesday, we learned New Home Sales rose very modestly in January, showing increased cancellations due to rising mortgage rates. Still, New Home Sales in 2016 beat the prior…
As a boy, I remember being told that the oratorical skills of Adolph Hitler would rob a person of their own internalized principles and beliefs. That was added to the growing list of things I didn’t understand as a boy about the grown-up world. Later, I was told that I would understand the holocaust IF I would just read Mien Kampf. I did but still…
In 1792, some “wannabe” stock traders gathered under a buttonwood tree on Wall Street to develop some agreement to trade stocks and the New York Stock Exchange was born. Today, over twenty trillion dollars of stocks trade there and is the biggest in the world. It has become synonymous with “the market.” Initially, it merely traded existing stocks. Later, it allowed new companies to sell…
I love Warren Buffett! He is not just another egocentric, egomaniac billionaire. He remains humble and even makes jokes about himself. He gives mostly excellent advice to investors. Of course, he can sometimes confuse investors, as he did this weekend. The media coverage was that he believes passive investing is always superior to active investing. There has been an ongoing debate about this within the…
Most of us know the simple, guilty pleasure of falling asleep during the annual State-of-the-Union (SOTU) address by the President. These speeches are usually bombastic partisan ranting without meaning, which make the sleeping even better. However, the next one should be worth an extra cup of coffee at dinner. It will be different. Since the election last November, the bulls have been happily running down…
I’ve written many times that the cancer on the body politic of America is gerrymandering. It is the core of the political pollution that we see daily. It discriminates against moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats, in favor of extreme Republicans and extreme Democrats. Moderates can compromise and accomplish things, extremists cannot. Unfortunately, the fight has taken on a partisan tinge. Make no mistake, both political…
I have written several times that every President since Reagan has been a failure, because each has promised to “do something” about LOUD commercials on television. Bush II and Obama both claim at least partial credit for the Commercial Advertisement Loudness Mitigation” (CALM) Act, which theoretically limited the LOUDness of commercials to the programming before and after. That new law became effective at the end…
“Must-see TV” consists of only two shows for me, i.e., Fareed Zakaria’s GPS on CNN and Sixty Minutes on CBS. Last night, I was slow finding the remote after Sixty Minutes, when some fictional show began. Before I could cut off the TV, I heard the word “Ponzi” and was hooked. I had to listen! It seems a prominent lawyer decided to retire and move…
The two primary methods of controlling the economy are monetary policy (by the Fed) and fiscal policy (by Congress). Since the 2008/9 Global Financial Crisis, the United States has only had monetary policy to control the economy, as Congress has been worse than useless. To the extent that our economy has recovered, we can thank the Fed. However, the good news is that, as monetary…
Last time . . . The Democrats were right, and the Republicans were wrong. This time . . . The Republicans are right, and the Democrats are wrong. You will recall the summer of 2011 when the Republicans threw such a hypocritical hissy-fit about the Debt Ceiling that Standard & Poor’s actually lowered the credit rating of the United States for being ungovernable – not…
The difference between my children and my guns is that . . . I know how many children I have. The difference between the NRA and myself is that . . . I am a SANE gun-lover. The difference between the Senate Republicans and myself is that . . . I have a conscience! I am appalled the Senate Republicans are restoring the right of…
During a mere 48 hours this week, the following information was released: 1. The Small Business Optimism Index rose again in January, as it has for the last three months, driven largely by the increase in small business owners who think the next three months will be a good time to expand their business. (This is good!) 2. The Consumer Price Index showed inflation has…
Momentum investing, channel investing, trend following — all are buzzwords and/or excuses for not knowing economic pressure points or individual stocks. Addiction to these approaches stems from their quick and dirty simplicity. Here is a good example: You can quickly see the Dow shows no indication that it is going to break out of its upward channel. Investors should therefore rest comfortable that disaster is…
Nobel prize-winning investment theory Modern Portfolio Theory found that performance is increased, while risk is decreased, over the long-term, if the portfolio is allocated across the many investment classes, which includes European stocks. However, those investors who had any European exposure lost badly a few years ago and are reluctant to to embrace that hot coal again. Once burned, twice shy, I guess? And, I…
It happened the first Saturday after the November presidential election. I was watching The Golf Channel, when they started talking about the impact of Trump on golf and how his election might affect play at his already-expensive golf courses. It got me thinking about Trump, but it was Saturday, which is my “news-free” day. I decided to just “tough-it-out” and endure the election coverage. But,…
Starbucks has always been an enigma to me. Its customers seem fiercely loyal to the brand, for some reason. My perception has been that the coffee is too bitter and too expensive. Now, it seems there is a relationship to love of Starbucks and political leanings. Take a look at this chart. The more you like Starbucks, the more likely you are to vote Democratic.…
Senator John McCain has always been one of my personal heroes. When he was trashed last year by then-candidate Donald Trump, who even denigrated McCain’s war record as a prisoner-of-war, I saw very clearly the naked character of Trump. Readers may recall I wrote that Trump was trash and not fit to be president. Trashing McCain was a red-line for me! Nonetheless, he is now…
Existentialists view death as the ultimate fraud. They fear boredom before death far more than death itself.Sheryl Crow is a superbly talented musician and singer. She has been quite successful, with an estimated net worth of $40 million. At 54, she still retains that certain hard athletic beauty. She has long been one of my favorite performers.I attended a performance tonight and was no more…
David Cameron was Prime Minister of Great Britain from 2010 until July of last year, when he lost the Brexit vote and resigned. I attended a lecture of his yesterday and took away the following thoughts: 1. He is not worried about England following the Brexit vote, just sad that the many impending inconveniences are so unnecessary. (He is worried about losing some of the…