I believe the U.S. intelligence agencies, that the Russians meddled in our presidential campaign last year, and think it deserves further examination. Unfortunately, any discussion of this subject gets mixed into a discussion about potential involvement by the Trump campaign. Whether anybody from the campaign colluded is a separate issue from the Russian meddling. Forget collusion and stay focused on Russia trying to mold public…
Long ago, my father told me not to discuss politics or religion, because people take offense so easily. I cannot ignore politics in my profession, but I never write about religion. But, sometimes you read something so amusing that it has to be shared. During a recent sermon, I learned churches and synagogues have too many of the following individuals: Mrs. Eve Environmentalist, who tells…
Hillsdale College is a well-respected conservative think-tank in Michigan. A good friend gave me one of their recent policy opinions to read, which I did gladly. The gist of it was that the problem with Democrats is that they worship at the altar of identity politics, dividing America instead of unifying it. The writer argued Democrats are less patriotic than Republicans. That may be a…
When I was taught the “scientific method” long ago, I recall the arduous process of moving an idea from hypothesis to theory to principle. While I don’t have time to go through that lengthy process, I do have a hypothesis. While the stock market invariably over-reacts, it over-reacts to different news, depending on where it is in the cycle. During bear markets, the stock market…
After months of 24/7 saturation coverage, you can recall that certain exhaustion you feel the day before an election. You have hope, because the election is the next day. Still, you can barely tolerate coverage for another 24 hours. That’s the way I feel about bitcoin! In the business media, coverage has been bitcoin, bitcoin, and bitcoin. That one crypto-currency began trading in the futures…
Being a sports fan offers a fun opportunity for both competition and silliness. American football fans are no different. As a long-suffering fan of the Dallas Cowboys, I have a Cowboys jacket, a Cowboys sweatshirt, a Cowboys tee-shirt, a Cowboys watch, and even a pair of Cowboys underwear (TMI). But, the Cowboys’ reach for profits has reached new heights with the sale of drones, complete…
Absence makes the heart grow fonder, even for economic data. While the monthly jobs report is not the most instructive economic report, it has long been the most popular and has the most short-term impact on the stock market. Today’s report continued a long string of good reports, with 228 thousand new jobs being created last month, more than the 195 thousand that pundits expected. …
Arguably, the oldest living Libertarian is Alan Greenspan, who is more famously known as Chairman of the Federal Reserve immediately prior to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, when he argued for loose governmental regulation, particularly of financial institutions. As any good Libertarian would, he believed that people would always act in their own best interest, and it is not in the best interest of…
Readers will recall that I predicted in March that President Trump would be impeached. Today’s news only makes me more confident that it is true. Only a resignation could preclude the impeachment. But, I mourn for the country, because impeachment is an agonizing experience and is bad for the country. It will not make us any less partisan. If it must be, then I pray…
When I was a young economics student, I was fascinated by economic cycles. Wouldn’t it be great to be an investor with full knowledge of the next recession? Those cycles ranged from 4 years to 52 years and had exotic names like Juglars and Kondratieff. However, regardless of the cycle you choose, we are late and should have already had a recession by now. In…
Consumer confidence has reached the highest level in seventeen years. The stock market has hit record highs. Is that a coincidence or a real relationship? Almost all economic data is related to other economic data. But c onsumer confidence is more closely related to the level of unemployment than the stock market. When jobs are plentiful, consumer confidence is higher. Likewise, plentiful jobs indicate the…
I am a Supply-side economist . . . some of the time. I am a Keynesian economist . . . some of the time. And, I am an Austrian economist . . . some of the time. There is a time and a place for each of the three major schools of economics. Supply-side economics and Keynesian economics are useful for “jump-starting” a moribund economy. …
News from Fox News is considered true-news by Republicans. Democrats consider most news from Fox News as fake-news. This is the partisan perspective, and it is unfortunate that we take such a binary view of news. It is far too multi-faceted for binary views. There are more than two perspectives. All the major news sources — Fox, CNN, MSNBC, networks, etc. — are overly U.S.…
I was not captain of my high school football team, nor did I ever date a cheerleader. Long ago, I accepted the reality that I would never be President of the United States, nor even an Army general. That was fine for me but is not fine for many other people, unfortunately. Wellschmerz is the German word for that emotional problem that develops when one realizes…
The S&P 500 has set 54 new all-time highs so far this year. Most believe the elevated level of the stock market is due to the flooding of cash into the economy by the Fed since 2009. That was an important factor but is decreasingly so, as the Fed reduces its balance sheet by selling off some of its bonds and raising interest rates.. More…
In his iconic 1970 book Future Shock, Alvin Toffler pointed out how the rate of change was increasing. At first, it seemed to elaborate the obvious. However, deeper analysis demonstrated that the rate of change was feeding on itself and would continue to increase at a faster and faster rate. He argued that we need to increase the speed of our decision-making to accommodate the…
There is a difference between trust and respect. For example, I have no trust for the giant investment house of Goldman Sachs but have great respect for them, especially their research. Their latest forecast is (1) that the stock market should be as strong in 2018 as in 2017 and (2) that, if Trump doesn’t get a “win” on tax reform, he will be too…
It started as a trickle and soon became a stream and now it is a river. The current news coverage on sexual harassment has focused our attention on a low profile but very real problem. This is a good thing! First, there can be no justification or excuse for sexual harassment, but a little perspective is always helpful. About 17 years ago, I worked with…
So, the central banks in the United States, Canada, and England have all started to raise interest rates, as part of their normalization after the global financial crisis. The ECB says they will also — someday. Rising interest rates push that country’s currency exchange rates up. Since the ECB declined to raise rates last month, the euro has declined 2% against the dollar. That’s a…
Economists often advise people who cannot follow all the economic data each month to simply follow the monthly “jobs report” issued by the Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month, because the economy must be strong if the job market is strong. It includes the normal monthly unemployment rate. Some economists prefer the U-6 unemployment rate, which measures the long term unemployed. …
If you are one of my Democratic friends, please stop reading now. You won’t understand it and will have that silly “deer-in-the-headlights” look on your face. If you are one of my Republican friends, I have long agreed that the news media has a Democratic bias, at least a 51% bias. (However, since Fox-world has a 30% share of the news market, the Democratic bias…
Let’s see . . . GDP growth last quarter was unexpectedly high at 3%, unemployment is very low, stock market values are up . . . it is small wonder that the latest Consumer Confidence Index is the highest in almost seventeen years. There is always another economic recession somewhere out there, but it is not visible on the horizon yet. Watching for an economic…
The President has declared opioid usage a national health emergency, and I applaud anything to help those people trapped in addiction. Missing from the discussion, however, is the historical sweep of drug addiction. There has never been a time in my lifetime that there was NOT a drug problem of some type. As a boy, I remember my father making me watch a TV show…
Iceland is a fascinating little island-nation with a population of a mere 335 thousand, much less than the city of Virginia Beach for example. Often called the “land of fire and ice,” it is indeed a land of contrasts from glacier-covered active volcanoes to magnificent art galleries. Despite a jaw-breaking language, the population is remarkably well-educated and well-read. While I believe that people are just…
Hundreds of times, I’ve posed the question of “is 6% a good portfolio return?” The answer, of course, is — it depends! If you take very little risk and get a 6% return, it is a good return. If you take a lot of risk and only get a 6% return, it is a terrible return. Your return has no meaning without knowing how much…
Economists have been waiting for the economic data to become misleading due to the impact of our terrible hurricane season. Fortunately, the monthly “durables report” helps separate the one-time data from the more durable. It is one of the more important monthly reports. Overall, capital goods order rose another 2.2% in September, following a 2.0% jump the previous month. That is a very strong increase,…
Janet Yellen has been Chairman of the Federal Reserve System since the retirement of Ben Bernanke, but her term expires in February, and President Trump is looking for her replacement. She has indicated that she would like to continue in her current job, but is opposed by the Area 51 Republicans primarily because she was originally appointed by former President Obama. The first choice of…
As a long-time member of the National Association of Business Economics, I follow their surveys closely. In their latest, it is clear they see no prospect of recession during the next two years. Here are some thoughts: Look at the sharp rise in earnings from the third quarter (Q3) of this year to the next quarter. Obviously, other members are more optimistic than I am,…
During the Great Depression, Democrats faced a moribund economy and needed to jump-start it. To do so, they adopted Keynesian economics which calls for deficit spending. This is sometimes called “demand-side” economics and is the mirror image of “supply-side” economics, which has been adopted by Republicans. One calls for the government to increase its demand for goods & services, while the other calls for businesses…
Political parties are obstacles to clear thinking. My Democratic friends are incensed that Trump & Company colluded with the Russians, while my Republican friends call it a “big nothing-burger.” Their thinking is polluted. Neither has identified the all-important issue: THE RUSSIANS HACKED OUR ELECTION! We should be talking about punishment for the Russians. We must have an agreement with the Russians never to do this…
University of Chicago professor Richard Thaler wins this year’s Nobel prize for economics for his groundbreaking discovery that human beings are . . . well, human! You see, for the sake of convenience, economists have always assumed that people act rationally, in their own best interest. Supply-siders like to believe taxpayers would set aside any tax savings and invest it to “create jobs,” despite over-whelming…
For those interested in my latest column for Inside Business, you can read it here: https://pilotonline.com/inside-business/news/columns/third-quarter-outlook-economy-chugging-along-expert-column/article_e2f86efe-3ee9-559c-a7a8-31576b0f61c1.html
Even though the United States LOST 33 thousand jobs in September, the jobs-market is HOT! The unemployment rate is only 4.2%. The more important U-6 level of unemployment, which includes the long-term unemployed and those only marginally attached to the workforce, like those who hold serial part-time jobs, has fallen to only 8.3%, which is the lowest level since 2007. The only reason the U.S.…