When you lose a loved one, it is normal to grieve and mourn the loss. In fact, it is both normal and healthy. The lead editorial in the local newspaper yesterday was titled “Privacy compromised in VA” and raises awareness of the new surveillance capability of police — collecting license plate photos with time and location – 1,600 per minute. Hey, if it leads to…
Normally, the stock market loses value slowly as the presidential election approaches, because uncertainty is increasing. Of course, 2020 is predictably worse, as the market is now losing value more rapidly than normal as the election approaches. This can be understandable, because (1) the election is so ugly and contentious, (2) more race-riots and election-related violence are expected soon, (3) the coronavirus is spiking again,…
My late mother voted a straight Republican ticket, beginning with General Eisenhower in 1952. Over the years, she frequently told me that “a good man is better than a rich man.” I thought of that on July 18th, 2015, when I watched Donald Trump trash our beloved war-hero, the late Senator John McCain – gratuitously – for no reason – just for fun. That told…
As a Cub Scout, I learned that lichens only grow on the north side of trees, so I could orient my map. As a soldier, I learned to aim slightly lower when aiming uphill, as the reducing air pressure gave a slight lift to the bullet. As an investment analyst, I learned that stock prices have a propensity to weaken on Friday afternoons, as traders…
Oh, those silly Europeans . . . they’re just so fussy . . . and cute! Earlier this year, Congress held hearings on the future of Big Tech companies, like Google, Facebook, Twitter, and Microsoft. Congress is worried they have become too big and too powerful. Historically, Democrats have always been distrustful of Big Business. The Republicans are simply worried that Big Tech doesn’t like…
I rise in defense of Donald J. Trump. Somehow, it was leaked that Mr. Trump has over $400 million of debt, which he has not denied. Pundits immediately went to the bankruptcy angle, whereby he could theoretically be begging in the Oval Office. Those pundits are unfamiliar with Real Estate Finance 101. Typically, a real estate entrepreneur uses OPM – other people’s money – as…
Fareed Zakaria is a native of Mumbai, India who earned his doctorate from Harvard and now hosts a highly-rated weekly show on foreign affairs for CNN, called GPS. He has already written several best-selling books, including his latest, which is entitled Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World. I didn’t see his “Lessons” as something to learn from — but more as things that will govern…
My quarterly column for Inside Business can be found here: https://www.pilotonline.com/inside-business/vp-ib-expert-flinchum-1012-20201009-ee7quugvvfevha6huodveq3txa-story.html
It is no surprise that white middle-aged men have economic and social advantages in life. Of course, these blessed Americans also have 69.97% of all suicides. One usual reason is the guilt of having squandered their “white-male” advantages by accomplishing so little. It is the curse of “the American Dream.” Another reason is that white males are encouraged to become white ALPHA males. To…
If President Trump is reelected, my Democratic friends will find that as proof of our continuing systemic racism. If President Trump is defeated, my Republican friends will blame it on the media. Niall Ferguson is a brilliant, widely-respected, Scottish-born conservative, who is a professor of history at Stanford and has authored numerous excellent books. Personally, I find him less than affable, and I suspect he…
For years, I have recommended that everyone have a “news-free” day. That is especially important as the never-ending pandemic stretches on, as our political establishment continues to embarrass us, as neighbors gravitate into Red or Blue tribes, as domestic strife breeds domestic terror, and so on. Saturday is my day to be free of news. It is easy to change channels on television, and I’ve…
I’m concerned that many mail-in ballots will be disqualified, because zero errors are permitted. You might mail in a ballot with an error unknowingly, only to have your ballot disqualified and not know it. Unfortunately, I did make an error completing my ballot. Since I could no longer vote-by-mail, I went to the Courthouse and stood in line for a while, but I got to…
Since signing the agreement to a ceasefire in the trade war with China, that trade war has been crowded off the front page by the election, but interesting things are still happening. Despite a long-established reputation as a currency manipulator (in order to make their exports cheaper for foreigners to buy), they have actually allowed their currency (Yuan) to appreciate or go up by 3.9%…
Nobody wants to pay higher taxes and have less money to take home to their families. Some taxpayers say taxes alone drive all their decisions, which I don’t understand. I know one man in Texas who actually sold his house and moved to another state, away from his grandchildren, just to avoid increased real estate taxes. Guess his mother never told him: “Moderation in all…
It is a trivial thing, I know, but the way a President returns salutes has always been interesting to me. Both President Bushes saluted properly, which I appreciated. President Clinton (a non-veteran) never did figure it out. Bless his heart, but President Obama did try the hardest. However, President Trump always had a excellent salute, especially for a non-veteran. Sadly, as he boarded Marine One…
Readers know the low regard I’ve had for the Presidency of Donald J. Trump. Despite all that, I pray that he, his family, and his staff enjoy a quick, complete recovery from the coronavirus! Nobody deserves that awful disease. Be well, Mr. President!
Consumer Confidence is a key indicator of the economy, especially future retail sales. In February, it was 132.6 – a record high. Then, the pandemic hit and Consumer Confidence dropped to 85.7 in April. Monday, we learned it has risen nicely to 101.8. This was better than expected. We have spoken before about the two-speed economy, composed of those who floated above the pandemic-recession –…
With a $3 trillion national deficit this year and trillion dollar deficits expected to continue for years-to-come, there is an increasing anxiety about an economic collapse. Today, the release of the Net International Investment Position (NIIP) heightened that anxiety . . . but unnecessarily. The NIIP is focused on the amount of income we receive from our ownership of foreign assets, compared to the money…
Most of us see of a slippery slope from forgetfulness to dementia to Alheimer’s, but one does not necessarily lead to another. Forgetfulness is normal and even has the fancy name of “mild cognitive linguistic deficit”. I have been fortunate to work with senior citizens for most of my life. At least a thousand times, I have reassured a person that forgetting names or losing…
The joke among investment analysts is . . . if you want to have a small fortune in airline stocks, you just need to invest a large fortune! The aviation industry is a huge business, employing many thousands of people and consuming huge quantities of capital – both debt capital and equity capital. Whenever there is an economic crisis, they also consume large quantities of…
Some people believe that “those who refuse to learn the lessons of history are condemned to repeat them.” Some pundits amuse themselves by saying “history may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” My view is that history is the best flashlight we have to find a pathway in the dark. Here are some lessons I’ve learned about the history of the stock market. I…
Like most people, we have been cloistered the last seven months, with trips to the grocery store for excitement and an occasional meal at a local open-air restaurant. Recently, I needed to visit a client in Greenville, South Carolina. So, it was with some trepidation that we temporarily re-entered the normal world, because it was important. There was more traffic than expected. At stops, most…
We tend to think of life in three phases: childhood years, working years, and retirement years. This reflects the lifecycle model of a time when jobs were secure and lifespans were short. This has all changed, and we should update our perspective. In the past, we’ve noted that some work (either for money or for charity) helps a person negotiate the change from worker-to-non-worker identity,…
When the Fed meets and especially when the FOMC meets, they issue a written report, which is the most finely perused government report. Analysts scrutinize every word for any tiny minute change, even the placement of commas (seriously). It’s latest release promised to keep interest rates low for a longer period than predicted earlier. Now, it looks like no interest rate increases before 2023 or…
A new analysis from Brown University estimates the cost of the war in Iraq and in Afghanistan has been $6.4 trillion. Ignoring the necessity of those wars, focus on paying for the wars. Looking at www.usdebtclock.org, our national debt is about $26.8 trillion. That means the cost of those never-ending wars explains about 24% of our national debt. Due to the pandemic, our budget deficit…
Normally, we talk about economies in terms of separate countries, as in this country has a strong economy, while that country has a weak economy. Often, we slice economies by industries, as in this industry is doing well, while that industry is doing poorly. Since the 1970s, we have also sliced it by region, as in the northeastern U.S. is growing, while the southern U.S.…
Conspiracy theories are fashionable these days. Most psychologists suggest that some people are more susceptible to conspiracy theories than other people. That may be, but I suspect existentialists are the least susceptible. One of the few things I remember from high school physics is that atoms are in constant motion, colliding randomly with other atoms. The atoms don’t go into a back room and decide…
Having watched our RINO President refer to the late Senator McCain as a loser, and calling the late President Bush a loser for going down in his plane during World War II, and later disrespecting a Gold Star family, I don’t have any difficulty believing he also called our fallen soldiers losers and suckers. He even asked a grieving father why his fallen son fought…
Households making less than $300 thousand annually give about 2.3% to charity each year, while households making more than $300 thousand donate 4.4%. Households identifying as religious give twice as much as those who do not. Volunteers to charitable organizations give 2.5% of their income to charity each year, compared to 1.2% who don’t volunteer. Charitable giving tends to increase with age until age 65,…
It has been widely-reported that the U.S. Department of Justice has been overly-politicized, and that report is now widely accepted. It has been widely-reported that the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) and the Federal Drug Administration (FDA), two of the most respected institutions in the world, are being overly-politicized, which might explain why they started withholding demographic data on the coronavirus. What are the…
One of my favorite guns is a small Beretta .22LR automatic. It has 2″ barrel and six-shot clip. With such a short barrel, it is not accurate much past 20 feet, but it is small enough to fit into my front pants pocket — making it an ideal “pocket-pistol.” I keep it in the glove compartment and only slip it into my pocket when stopped…
Shutting down the economy is a terrible thing. It hurts the economy, as well as the emotional health of our citizens. Recognizing this, President Trump nonetheless had the courage to shut us down anyway. However, he remained under enormous pressure to get America open and back-to-normal as quickly as possible. The only thing worse than shutting down the economy is releasing it prematurely, possibly forcing…
Being a Republican is easy, just watch Fox News. Being a Democrat is easy, just watch MSNBC or even CNN. Being Independent NOT easy! NEWSY is unbiased but not deep enough. Being Independent does require you to watch news networks you don’t like. However, being Independent does not require you to watch national conventions. I watched exactly zero minutes of the Democratic Convention last week.…
