Maybe it was my strict Southern Baptist upbringing, but I always feel some responsibility when bad things happen, and not many things are worse than the attack on our Capitol last week. Of course, my responsibility is tiny, but I do feel some tiny sympathy for the thugs and hooligans attacking us. Most of them come from small towns with limp economies, which were badly…
At first, Google’s search engine was a modern-day-miracle, enabling almost anybody to quickly find almost anything. And, it was FREE! Later, it was disappointing to learn their business model was legalized spying on their users, by selling information on what each user searched for. During that same period, there were increasing number of job openings for “big data analysts” and there were articles about new…
The most common question I receive is how can the stock market do so well, when the economy does so poorly? The short answer is that the economy reflects the present, while the stock market reflects the future. A better answer is that the price of stocks reflects the supply and demand for stocks. The supply of stock is not fixed, but it increases slowly. …
There was a light summer rain that day in 2002, when I had a late meeting in the Rosslyn area, across the Potomac from the District of Columbia. Listening to WTOP, the local traffic radio station, I learned the “spaghetti bowl” (the area between Rosslyn and the Pentagon) was jammed and not moving. Deciding to read instead of waiting in traffic, I pulled off on Mead…
Last year, the most common question was — how can the stock market be doing so well, when the economy is doing so badly? The short answer, of course, is that the economy is focused on the present, while the stock market is focused on the future. The object lesson is that, while the stock market and the economy are related, they are still very…
Just as there are good Democrats and bad Democrats, there are good Republicans and bad Republicans. The Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, is a good Republican. He is also smart enough to tape phone conversations with a bad Republican. America will be in a better place, when good Republicans retake the Grand Old Party.
Just as a person can consume too much food, a person can consume too much news. I have long advocated for a one-news-free day every week (except for business news). For myself, I avoid all news on Saturdays. It doesn’t really matter which day of the week you avoid the news – just one day to let your natural optimism to bubble back up. However,…
On September 11th, 2001, I was in my 5th floor office on King Street in Alexandria. From my window, I could see the Capitol and Washington Monument, as well Potomac side of the Pentagon. Early that morning, everybody began rushing to the conference rooms, watching television coverage of the World Trade Center in New York. Then, they rushed into my office to see the Pentagon. …
I agree with President Trump about the infamous section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 . . . but for a different reason. When the social media industry was getting started, there was understandable concern that they might be held liable for things written on or advocated on their websites. For example, should the website owners be held liable if a user advocated…
If you think it has been a long time since Trump was elected in the Fall of 2016, then offer condolences to your British friends, who have been living with increasing anxiety since the Summer of that year, as the Brexit negotiations dragged on and on. A month ago, those negotiations were dead, and Britain faced a “hard exit” from the European Union at yearend,…
An old friend was driving by and saw me. As she slowed down and lowered her window, I rummaged in my pocket for a mask. After exchanging the customary pleasantries, I asked if she had any special plans for Christmas? She answered “Jim, you know I don’t have any kids.” Later, I wondered about that linkage between kids and holy observances? One theory is that…
Seldom do I listen to angry old white men, especially those who already know everything. You know the type – more opinions than thoughts. But, John Bolton does have an interesting opinion. You’ll recall he was U.N. ambassador for President George W. Bush, and National Security Advisor to President Trump, until he was fired. This weekend, he was discussing the latest massive hack of America’s…
All of us have received those annual “what we have done” letters from our friends and relatives each year. However, we received one from our friend and neighbor, Ivana Basnight, that I thought was original and meaningful. She points out that 2020 was not all bad. With her permission, here is her message: Christmas Greeting 2020 – A Simple Message This Year – JOY, We…
In 1962, a popular movie was called “The Music Man.” One scene involved a parade, playing “76 Trombones”. At the parade went by, onlookers jumped into the end of it. After all, they didn’t want to miss the parade. In recent weeks, several prominent, high-profile investment figures on Wall Street have said they are buying bitcoin and other crypto-currencies. They point out the extensive media…
I support President Trump’s legal attack on social media giants, such as Facebook and Google, but for a different reason. The FTC and antitrust division of the Department of Justice have been moribund since the last Bush Administration. They slept peacefully during the unfortunate consolidation of the hospital industry and also in the hotel industry. Suddenly, Trump woke them up to attack Facebook. The European…
There is a difference between rising anxiety and rising dread. Before my father came ashore in Normandy during World War II, he spent two-three very-long-months in Colchester, England, preparing for the invasion. He told me that it was a time of rising anxiety – increasing worry about the unknown. What would happen to them in France? The wait was excruciating. More recently, our national health…
As a longtime member of the National Association of Business Economics, I always look forward to their member-survey of economic conditions. In no particular order, here are some of their latest predictions: After the whipsaw Q3 increase in GDP of 33.1%, we expect GDP will increase only 4.1% in this quarter and 2.9% in the next quarter – a definite slowdown! GDP will grow 3.4%…
Take a look at this graph, and you will see how the stock market rebounds after a major bear market, which is defined as a 30% drop. This has happened six times since 1950. Looking at the gray line, you can see that, historically, the stock market rose slightly more than 40% on average in the first 250 trading days after the market bottom. Looking…
First, there is Thanksgiving Thursday, followed by Black Friday, followed by Cyber Monday, followed by Giving Tuesday, which was yesterday. Some people refer to the Season of Giving as the Season of Guilt. When the continuous Medicare commercials end on December 7th, you will notice a surge in commercials featuring sick kids or suffering animals. You know . . . show some Christmas spirit by…
The late Austrian-born economist Joseph Schumpeter popularized the idea that good things can result from bad things and described it as creative destruction. When President Trump appointed Peter Navarro to the newly-created office as Trade Czar, AKA as Director of National Trade Council, I had mixed emotions. He has the affable persona one would expect from a musician-father and secretary-mother, but he was regarded as…
What is it about dumb criminals that make them seem almost funny? Ponzi schemes are always described by the media as an example of the way unscrupulous financial advisors steal from their clients. Actually, it is a way that really DUMB financial advisors steal from their clients for a period of time. By its nature, ALL Ponzi schemes are doomed to failure, by their ever-increasing…
When I enjoyed some graduate work at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, I especially enjoyed meeting Dr. Jeremy Siegel. Shy, self-effacing, and slightly bumbling, he was the stereotypical professor . . . except he is also a brilliant investment strategist. Here are some of his most recent observations. Inflation will be picking up, to the 4-5% level, caused almost entirely by the…
I am thankful . . . to be born in America. I am thankful . . . to have good health. I am thankful . . . to have plenty of food. I am thankful . . . to have enough money. I am thankful . . . to have a wonderful wife. I am thankful . . . to be a privileged white male.…
Shortly after President Trump became President, I recalled Barbara Mandrell’s 1981 classic “I was country when country wasn’t cool’. One of my degrees was in World Trade, where I was deeply steeped in the economic Principal of Comparative Advantage, which provides a logical, coherent basis for bilateral international trade and, by extension, multilateral trade. I had been a big supporter of NAFTA and other multilateral…
The Senate should not approve the nomination of Dr. Judy Shelton to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She has frequently expressed interest in returning to the gold standard. If gold is pegged at $35/oz ,for example, our total money supply is a direct function of how much gold we have. We can quibble about a return to the gold standard and…
Imagine a newspaper headline that said “Clocks showed five o’clock twice yesterday.” Well, duh . . . David Rosenberg is one of the most respected investment strategists on Wall Street. He was interviewed by a magazine that carried the headline “There will be another big correction in the stock market.” Well, duh . . . There has never been a time in our economic history…
The government told me to register with Selective Service. I didn’t like it but did it anyway . . . and I was still a man. The government told me “Uncle Sam needs you.” I didn’t like it but did it anyway . . . and I was still a man. The government told me I had to have a drivers license. I didn’t like…
If you have any gray hair, you’re probably unfamiliar with “TikTok” which is an app to upload and watch short videos, which are usually less than a minute and produced by millions of our friends and neighbors, mostly young friends and neighbors. It has been in the news recently, because President Trump wants the app to be owned by an American company, instead of the…
When a new company wants to sell some of itself, in the form of shares, to the general public, it normally does an Initial Public Offering (IPO). This is a long, arduous process that is closely regulated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Certain forward-looking projections are required, such as sales and expenses. If any of those projections are off wildly, the SEC will ask…
The mass media is mildly annoyed by privacy but is enraged by secrets. We could not even keep the atomic bomb secret. Now, we are asked to believe that many Democrats in many states conspired to defraud American voters. I’m not saying Democrats are “above” that sort of thing, because neither Democrats nor Republicans are smart enough or organized enough to coordinate a multi-state fraud…
I try to seek out the Libertarian view on most issues and often agree with those views. The current controversary over lockdowns is no exception. The conventional wisdom is that lockdowns are effective tools to combat the coronavirus. The Libertarian wisdom is explained in their new Great Barrington Declaration — that people are different and different tools should be used for different risk profiles. The…
Yesterday’s employment or “jobs” report was better than expected, which is a nice way of saying . . . not as bad as feared during a pandemic. Economists expected 350 thousand jobs were created last month and were pleasantly surprised to learn it was 638 thousand. This was despite a drop of 138 thousand in Federal employment, due to “completion” of the decennial census. The…
Television advertising will drop on both November 3rd and again on December 1st. First, the never-ending Presidential election will finally be held on November 3rd – WHEW! Second, December 1st is the end of the annual Medicare enrollment period and the end of those annoying television commercials – WHEW! But, what should you do? The textbook response is that you should closely compare your current…
